By Bitcoin 杂志 - 1 年前 - 阅读时间：5 分钟
Market Mayhem and Calling the Bitcoin Price Bottom
A contrarian take on the current market structure suggesting that the bitcoin bottom is near and the Federal Reserve will reverse its hawkish course.
在这里收听这一集：
AppleSpotify谷歌Libsyn灰蒙蒙In this episode of the “Fed Watch” podcast, Christian Keroles and I, along with the livestream crew, discuss macro developments relevant to bitcoin. Topics include the recent 50 bps rate hike from the Fed, a consumer price index (CPI) preview — the episode was recorded live on Tuesday, before the CPI data was released — and a discussion on why owners’ equivalent rent is often misunderstood. We wrap up with an epic discussion of the bitcoin 价钱。
This could be a pivotal episode in the history of “Fed Watch,” because I’m on the record saying that bitcoin is “in the neighborhood” of the bottom. This is in stark contrast to the mainstream uber-bearishness in the market right now. In this episode, I rely heavily on charts that didn’t always line up during the video. Those charts are provided below with a basic explanation. You can see the 我在这里使用的整个幻灯片.
“Fed Watch” is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the traditional financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now.
美联储和美国经济数据
在第一个图表中，我指出了美联储在标准普尔 500 指数图表上最近两次加息的情况。我写在一个 本周博客, “What I'm trying to show is that the rate hikes themselves are not the Federal Reserve’s primary tool. Talking about hiking rates is the primary tool, along with fostering the belief in the magic of the Fed.” Remove the arrows and try to guess where the announcements were.
(来源)下一张图表也是如此：黄金。
(来源)Lastly, for this section, we looked at the bitcoin chart with quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) plotted. As you can see, in the era with “No QE,” from 2015 to 2019, bitcoin experienced a 6,000% bull market. This is almost the exact opposite of what one would expect. To summarize this section, Fed policy has little to do with major swings in the market. Swings come from the unknowable complex ebbs and flows of the market. The Federal Reserve only tries to smooth the edges.
(来源)消费者物价指数混乱
很难对播客的这一部分写出一个好的摘要，因为我们在数据丢失前一天还在直播。在播客中，我介绍了 欧元区CPI小幅走高7.5 月份同比增长 2.5%，环比变化率从 0.6 月份惊人的 XNUMX% 下降到 XNUMX 月份的 XNUMX%。这是大多数人在消费者物价指数 (CPI) 上所忽略的故事：四月份的月度变化迅速放缓。我还在播客上报道了美国的 CPI 预测，但现在， 我们有四月份的硬数据。 美国整体 CPI 从 8.5 月份的 8.3% 下降至 1.2 月份的 0.3%。环比变化从XNUMX月份的XNUMX%下降到XNUMX月份的XNUMX%。再次，CPI涨幅大幅回落。当查看同比数据时，CPI 可能会非常令人困惑。
8.3 月份的通胀率看似为 0.3%，但实际上仅为 XNUMX%。
同比CPI、环比CPI（资源)Next topic we cover in the podcast is rent. I very often hear misunderstandings of the CPI measure on shelter and specifically owners’ equivalent rent (OER). For starters, it’s very hard to measure the impact of increases to housing costs on consumers in general. Most people do not move very often. We have 15- or 30-year fixed-rate mortgages that are not affected at all by current home prices. Even rental leases are not renewed every month. Contracts typically last a year, sometimes more. Therefore, if a few people pay higher rents in a certain month, that does not affect the average person’s shelter expenses or the average landlord’s revenue.
Taking current market prices for rentals or homes is a dishonest way to estimate the average cost of housing, yet not doing so is the most often-quoted critique of the CPI. Caveat: I’m not saying CPI measures inflation (money printing); it measures an index of prices to maintain your standard of living. Of course, there are many layers of subjectivity in this statistic. OER more accurately estimates changes in housing costs for the average American, smooths out volatility and separates pure shelter costs from investment value.
Bitcoin 价格分析
The rest of the episode is talking about the current bitcoin price action. I start my bullish rant by showing the hash rate chart and talking about why it is a lagging and confirming indicator. With the hash rate at all-time highs and consistently increasing, this suggests that bitcoin is fairly valued at its current level.
Bitcoin hash rate (资源) 历史 bitcoin drawdowns (资源)近年来，上涨时间更短、规模更小，下跌时间也更短、规模更小。该图表表明 50% 的回撤是新常态，而不是 85%。
Now, we get into some technical analysis. I concentrate on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) because it is very basic and a fundamental building block of many other indicators. Monthly RSI is at levels that typically signal cycle bottoms. Currently, the monthly metric shows that bitcoin is more oversold than at the bottom of the corona crash in 2020. Weekly RSI is equally as oversold. It is as low as the bottom of the corona crash in 2020, and before that, the bottom of the bear market in 2018.
恐惧和贪婪指数也 极低。 这项指标显示“极度恐惧”通常处于相对底部，10 级与 19 年 COVID-2020 崩盘以来的最低评级并列。
(来源)总而言之，我的逆向（看涨）论点是：
Bitcoin is already at historic lows and could bottom at any moment. The global economy is getting worse and bitcoin is counterparty-free, sound money, so it should behave similarly to 2015 at the end of QE.The Fed will be forced to reverse its narrative in the coming months which could relieve downward pressure on stocks.Bitcoin is closely tied to the U.S. economy at this point, and the U.S. will weather the coming recession better than most other places.这就是本周的事情。 感谢读者和听众。 如果您喜欢此内容，请订阅、评论和分享！
这是 Ansel Lindner 的客座帖子。 所表达的意见完全是他们自己的，不一定反映 BTC Inc. 或 Bitcoin 杂志.
原始来源： Bitcoin 杂志