重温 Dorsey 的恶性通货膨胀推文：Elon、Wood、Saylor、Balaji、Chip In

作者：NewsBTC - 2 年前 - 阅读时间：6 分钟
4 年 2021 月 1 日星期四 55:XNUMX

重温 Dorsey 的恶性通货膨胀推文：Elon、Wood、Saylor、Balaji、Chip In

When the Square mastermind declared hyperinflation was coming to the US, the world shook. With a single tweet, Jack Dorsey lit a fire that keeps on burning. In that first article, NewsBTC compiled the first reactions to this dangerous idea. Then, we told you about Peter Schiff’s unimaginative response. Now, it’s time for the big guns. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood answered with her deflationary theory, and Elon Musk, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, and notorious financial podcaster Preston Pysh answered. 

Related Reading | Michael Saylor Brings The Thunder To Venezuelan Bitcoin-仅限播客

此外，企业家、Coinbase 前首席技术官巴拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑 (Balaji Srinivasan) 还向火中投入了额外的木头。他是第一批响应者之一，为去中心化通胀仪表板的设计提供奖励。除此之外，《连线》专栏作家 Virginia Heffernan 也给出了类似 1984 年的回应，《Reason》杂志也迅速做出了回应。 

这篇文章充满了知识和有趣的理论供你思考。制作一些爆米花并欣赏表演。

This woman doesn’t mince words. “In 2008-09, when the Fed started quantitative easing, I thought that inflation would take off. I was wrong. Instead, velocity – the rate at which money turns over per year – declined, taking away its inflationary sting. Velocity still is falling.” Is she right? Isn’t purchasing power the real victim of the rampant money printing that all governments are engaging in?

In 2008-09, when the Fed started quantitative easing, I thought that inflation would take off. I was wrong. Instead, velocity – the rate at which money turns over per year – declined, taking away its inflationary sting. Velocity still is falling. https://t.co/tFaXSaCKqS

— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) October 25, 2021

Let’s read her whole theory before jumping to conclusions. According to Wood, “three sources of deflation will overcome the supply chain-induced inflation that is wreaking havoc on the global economy.” Those are: 

1– “Artificial intelligence (AI) training costs, for example, are dropping 40-70% at an annual rate, a record-breaking deflationary force.”

当成本和价格下降时，流通速度和通货紧缩（如果不是通货紧缩）也会随之而来。如果消费者和企业认为未来价格会下跌，他们就会等待购买商品和服务，从而降低货币流通速度。

— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) October 25, 2021

2.- ”Creative destruction, thanks to disruptive innovation. They have not invested enough in innovation and probably will be forced to service their debts by selling increasingly obsolete goods at discounts: deflation.”

他们利用资产负债表来支付股息和回购股票，“制造”每股收益。他们在创新方面的投资不够，可能会被迫以折扣价出售日益过时的商品来偿还债务：通货紧缩。

— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) October 25, 2021

3.- “Businesses shut down and were caught flat-footed as goods consumption took off during the coronavirus crisis, they still are scrambling to catch up, probably double- and triple-ordering beyond their needs.” + “As a result, once the holiday season passes and companies face excess supplies, prices should unwind.”

因此，一旦假期结束，企业面临供应过剩，价格就会回落。一些商品价格——木材和铁矿石——已经下跌了50%，中国的打击力度是原因之一。石油价格是一个异常值，在心理上很重要。

— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) October 25, 2021

She ends her Twitter thread with an unironical “Truth always wins!” Well, Cathy, the truth is that governments everywhere are printing money non-stop. They’re literally inflating the monetary supply. We’re not talking hyperinflation yet, but still…

无论如何，我们还是邀请其他名人来帮忙吧。

Bitcoin-denier Elon Musk provides a practical answer, “I don’t know about long-term, but short-term we are seeing strong inflationary pressure.” Wood’s theory has some teeth to it, but there’s no denying that the prices are rising. And that the money printer goes brrrrrrrr. Musk also links to this satirical article. No mention of hyperinflation here.

Then, it’s time for Bitcoin maximalist extraordinaire Michael Saylor. “Inflation is a vector, and it is clearly evident in an array of products, services, & assets not currently measured by CPI or PCE. Bitcoin is the most practical solution for a consumer, investor, or corporation seeking inflation protection over the long term.” Inflation is clearly evident and that’s that. No mention of hyperinflation either.

Inflation is a vector, and it is clearly evident in an array of products, services, & assets not currently measured by CPI or PCE. #Bitcoin 对于寻求长期通胀保护的消费者、投资者或企业来说，这是最实用的解决方案。

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) October 26, 2021

Investor and podcaster Preston Pysh goes even further, “That’s because all the debasement keeps nesting itself into the cap rates of anything equity based AND the prices of Fixed Income. It should all make total sense when the market they are manipulating IS the fixed income market.” Market manipulation. Total control of the data. Those are factors to consider.

这是因为所有的贬值都不断地嵌入到任何基于股票的资本化率和固定收益的价格中。当他们操纵的市场是固定收益市场时，这一切都应该完全有意义。

— Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh) October 26, 2021

Contributing to the conversation for the second time, Balajis plays peacemaker and says that both Dorsey and Wood are “right in different ways.” According to him, “Everything technology disrupts will see prices fall. Everything the state subsidizes will see prices rise.” That’s because “The state actively prevents automation in the sectors it controls.” So, the current scenario is “a race between technological hyperdeflation & state-caused inflation, possibly hyperinflation.”

Both @jack and @CathieDWood are right in different ways.

Everything technology disrupts will see prices fall. Everything the state subsidizes will see prices rise. Like the graph below, but even more extreme. https://t.co/KDIGBH9iZp pic.twitter.com/JYTlw4xF55

— Balaji Srinivasan (@balajis) October 25, 2021

There’s an old wives’ tale that says that by only mentioning hyperinflation, one could generate a chain of unfortunate events that end up causing it. Cathie Wood brushed on the subject by saying “If consumers and businesses believe that prices will fall in the future, they will wait to buy goods and services, pushing the velocity of money down.”

Taking it to another level, Wired columnist Virginia Heffernan brings 1984 vibes to the discussion. “Like “divorce” in a marriage this word Jack tweeted should not be uttered unless you’re trying to bring it into being. No one shd take investment advice from someone who sees himself as making markets.”

Like “divorce” in a marriage this word @jack tweeted should not be uttered unless you’re trying to bring it into being.

没有人会接受自认为是做市人的投资建议。

How insanely reckless to tweet this. Immoral. Jack, ban thyself. pic.twitter.com/fl7CWRXdN8

— Virginia Heffernan (@page88) October 24, 2021

杰克·多西（Jack Dorsey）能否通过推文带来恶性通货膨胀？或许。然而，主要的嫌疑难道不是政府无情的印钞吗？这似乎是一个决定性因素，因为这正是通货膨胀的含义。没有两种办法，政府通过不断印钞来扩大货币供应量。杰克·多尔西的推文只是对这种情况的评论。

Related Reading | Is Evergrande Defaulting? Is This The Reason For China’s War Against Bitcoin?

In any case, Reason magazine has another interpretation for Heffernan’s bizarre behavior. Apparently, historically speaking, when hyperinflation happens the next move by the money printers is to prohibit people from even mentioning hyperinflation.

“确实，预期确实会影响行为，从而影响价格。但与强有力的宏观经济因素相比，多尔西用他的货币垃圾站煽动的任何风波显然都相形见绌——支出和印刷的繁荣、高额债务积压、封锁政策以及供应链的当前状况等等——这些因素确实是真实的。推动了“暂时”的通货膨胀，我们广受尊敬的专家确实承认这一点。”

尽管如此，美国距离恶性通货膨胀还很远，美元仍然是世界储备货币，这给了他们回旋余地。

原始来源： NewsBTC