By Bitcoin 杂志 - 1 年前 - 阅读时间：2 分钟
小塞勒：A Bitcoin 平民层面的投机攻击
简要了解贷款背后的数学可能会显示贷款与经典的美元成本平均策略相比的优势。
这是 Mickey Koss 的一篇观点社论，他是一名西点军校毕业生，拥有经济学学位。 在过渡到财政团之前，他在步兵团呆了四年。
这篇文章不是财务建议——只是一个在做一些数学运算的金融文盲精神病患者。
As bitcoin’s price crashes, I found myself thinking about Michael Saylor and his strategic use of debt to outstack basically everyone else in the world. It got me thinking, maybe I could do something similar. A pretty standard dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is a daily buy to the tune of $20–$25 a day for a pleb on a budget.
我的问题是，如果我将每天 20 美元的 DCA 转换为债务支付，并将这些未来的坐席带入现在，会是什么样子。
为了比较两者，我得到了一份个人贷款的报价，尽可能接近每天 20 美元的 DCA 付款。 实际报价如下。
The price at the time of this writing is $22,180. Let's assume a $25,000 bitcoin price, just to add a little conservatism into the calculation.
At $25,000, a $36,000 loan will grant you 1.44 bitcoin. If you multiply the $605.26 monthly payments by the 84-month loan term, you can see that the loan will cost you $50,841.84.
If we divide $50,841.84 by 1.44, we get a bitcoin price of $35,306.83 for you to break even when compared to the cost of the loan. If you think bitcoin will be above $35,000 in seven years, this seems like a pretty good deal to me.
但是 DCA 呢？
A $20 purchase at $25,000 bitcoin is 80,000 sats. If we take the 1.44 BTC above, or 144,000,000 sats, and divide it by the 80,000 sat DCA, you get 1,800. This means that at a constant price of $25,000, it would take you 1,800 days to DCA into 1.44 BTC at $20 a day, or 4.9 years.
So, essentially, if bitcoin was to stay at $25,000 or below for the next five years, the $20 a day DCA strategy is mathematically better. But if you think that BTC will generally keep rising over time, it may be beneficial to convert your DCA into a loan. Even with that 10% interest rate, bitcoin would only need to exceed $35,000 at the end of the seven-year term for you to come out on top. Honestly, it seems kind of conservative to me.
Michael Saylor 的策略在这些价格水平上开始显得颇具吸引力。 虽然我不能凭良心向任何人推荐这个，但我认为这是一个有趣的微观例子，它揭示了塞勒的头可能在哪里。
快乐堆叠。 我一直很喜欢这些特价商品。
最后重申一次：绝对不要这样做。 这不是财务建议。
这是 Mickey Koss 的客座帖子。 所表达的意见完全是他们自己的，不一定反映 BTC Inc. 或 Bitcoin 杂志。
原始来源： Bitcoin 杂志