By Bitcoin 杂志 - 3 个月前 - 阅读时间：6 分钟
Bitcoin 减半：为什么这次可能会有所不同
第四 Bitcoin halving is almost upon us, and this one has the potential for some very interesting surprises. This halving marks the reduction of the Bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 BTC every block to 3.125 BTC per block. These supply reductions occur every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, as part of Bitcoin’s gradual, disinflationary approach to its final capped supply in circulation.
21 万枚硬币的供应量有限，如果不是的话 此, foundational characteristic of Bitcoin. This predictability of supply and inflation rate has been at the heart of what has driven demand and belief in bitcoin as a superior form of money. The regular supply halving is the mechanism by which that finite supply is ultimately enacted.
The halvings over time are the driver behind one of the most fundamental shifts of Bitcoin incentives in the long term: the move from miners being funded by newly issued coins from the coinbase subsidy — the block reward — to being funded dominantly by the transaction fee revenue from users moving bitcoin 链上。
正如中本聪在白皮书第 6 节（激励）中所说：
“该激励措施也可以通过交易费来资助。如果交易的输出值小于其输入值，则差额就是交易费用，该费用将添加到包含该交易的区块的激励值中。一旦预定数量的代币进入流通，激励措施就可以完全转变为交易费用，并且完全不受通货膨胀影响。”
Historically the halving has correlated with a massive appreciation in the price of bitcoin, offsetting the impact of the miners’ subsidy being cut in half. Miners’ bills are paid in fiat, meaning that if the price of bitcoin appreciates, resulting in a larger income in dollar terms for the lower amount of bitcoin earned per block, the negative impact on mining operation is cushioned.
In light of the last market cycle, with not even a 4x appreciation from the prior all time high, the degree to which price appreciation will cushion miners from the effects of the halving is an assumption that might not consistently hold true. This coming halving, the inflation rate of bitcoin will drop for the first time below 1%. If the next market cycle plays out similarly to the previous one, with much lower upwards movement than seen historically, this halving could have a materially negative impact on existing miners.
This makes the fee revenue miners can collect from transactions more important than ever, and it will continue to become more central to their sustainability from a business perspective as block height increases and successive halvings occur. Either fee revenue has to increase, or the price needs to appreciate at a minimum by 2x each halving in order to make up for the decrease in subsidy revenue. As bullish as most Bitcoiners can be, the notion that a doubling in price is guaranteed to happen every four years, in perpetuity, is a dubious assumption at best.
不管你喜欢还是讨厌，BRC-20 代币和铭文已经改变了内存池的整个动态，将费用从它们存在之前的每个区块 0.1-0.2 BTC 的大概水平推高到 1-2 BTC 的平均波动水平最近——经常飙升远远超过这个数字。
这次的新因素
Ordinals present a very new incentive dynamic to the halving this go around that was not present at any prior halving in Bitcoin’s history. Rare sats. At the heart of Ordinals Theory is that satoshis from specific blocks can be tracked and “owned” based on its arbitrary interpretation of the transaction history of the blockchain，基于假设发送到特定输出的特定金额“发送”在那里。该理论的另一个方面是将稀有度值分配给特定的卫星。每个区块都有一个 coinbase，从而产生一个序数。但每个块对于该方案的重要性是不同的。每个普通块都会产生一个“罕见”sat，每个难度调整的第一个块会产生一个“稀有”sat，每个减半周期的第一个块会产生一个“史诗”sat。
This halving will be the first one since the widespread adoption of Ordinal Theory by a subset of Bitcoin users. There has never been the production of an “epic” sat while there was material market demand for it from a large and developed ecosystem. The market demand for that specific sat could wind up being valued at absurd multiples of what the coinbase reward itself is valued at in terms of just fungible satoshis.
The fact that a large market segment in the Bitcoin space would value that single coinbase drastically higher than any other creates an incentive for miners to fight over it by reorganizing the blockchain immediately after the halving. The only time such a thing has happened in history was during the very first halving, when the block reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Some miners continued trying to mine blocks rewarding 50 BTC in the coinbase after the supply cut, and gave up shortly after when the rest of the network ignored their efforts. This time around, the incentive to reorg isn’t based around ignoring the consensus rules and hoping people come along to your side, it's fighting over who is allowed to mine a completely valid block because of the value collectors will ascribe to that single coinbase.
不能保证这样的重组实际上会发生，但矿工这样做有很大的经济动机。如果它确实发生，它会持续多久最终取决于“史诗”坐在市场上的价值是多少，以弥补因争夺单个区块而不是推进链条而造成的收入损失。
Each halving in Bitcoin’s history has been a pivotal event people watch, but this go around it has the potential to be much more interesting than past halvings.
一场史诗般的卫星大战将如何展开
在我看来，这可以通过几种方式发挥作用。第一个也是最明显的方式是什么也没有发生。无论出于何种原因，矿工们并不认为自 Ordinals 采用开始以来开采的第一个“史诗”矿的潜在市场价值值得浪费能源重组区块链并放弃通过简单地开采下一个区块可以赚到的钱的机会成本。如果矿工认为序号可以获得的额外溢价不值得放弃进入下一个区块的成本，他们就不会这样做。
下一个可能性是经济规模细微差别的结果。想象一下，更大规模的采矿作业可以承受更多“丢失区块”的风险，参与争夺“史诗”卫星的重组斗争。拥有更多资金的大型矿商可以承担更大的风险。在这种情况下，我们可能会看到大型矿商进行一些奇怪的重组尝试，而规模较小的矿商甚至不会尝试，而且基本上造成的干扰很小。如果矿工认为他们可以为序数获得一些溢价，但不值得严重破坏网络的大量溢价，那么这种情况就会发生。
最后一种情况是，如果市场提前对“史诗”席位进行竞价，那么矿工可以清楚地了解序号的价值远远高于可替代席位本身的市场价值。在这种情况下，矿工可能会在很长一段时间内争夺该区块。不重组区块链背后的逻辑是，你正在赔钱，你不仅放弃了挖掘下一个区块的奖励，而且还继续承担运行挖矿业务的成本。在市场公开表明“史诗级”Sat 价值多少的情况下，矿工非常清楚他们可以在多长时间内放弃进入下一个区块，并且仍然通过实现减半后获得净利润coinbase 奖励与序数。在这种情况下，网络可能会出现严重中断，直到矿工开始接近遭受保证损失的程度，即使他们成功地开采了该区块而没有进行重组。
无论事情实际以何种方式发展，这都将成为未来每次减半都要考虑的一个因素，除非序数的需求和市场消失。
原始来源： Bitcoin 杂志