随着更多多米诺骨牌的倒下，加密货币的蔓延加剧

By Bitcoin 杂志 - 1 年前 - 阅读时间：4 分钟
17 年 2022 月 4 日星期四 00:XNUMX

随着更多多米诺骨牌的倒下，加密货币的蔓延加剧

深入了解加密货币本地蔓延中的下一个潜在多米诺骨牌，以及最近历史提款水平的比较。

以下是最近一期的节选 Bitcoin 杂志专业版， Bitcoin 杂志 优质市场通讯。 成为第一批获得这些见解和其他链上信息的人 bitcoin 市场分析直接发送到您的收件箱， 现在订阅.

我们目前正处于行业蔓延和市场恐慌正在形成之中。 尽管 FTX 和 Alameda 下跌，但更多来自基金、做市商、交易所、矿工和其他行业的参与者将效仿。 这与我们之前在 Luna 引发的崩盘中看到的剧本类似，只是这次对市场的影响更大。 这是对全球经济流动性浪潮回落所带来的资本配置不当、投机和过度杠杆的适当清理和冲刷。

也就是说，每个人都会迅速跳到下一个倒下的多米诺骨牌上。 这是自然的。 大多数围绕资产负债表和系统中隐藏杠杆的信息都是未知的，而新的信息和实时发展似乎每半小时就会流出一次。 交易所现在备受关注，市场关注着他们的一举一动和交易。 可能没有哪个交易所会像 FTX 和 Alameda 那样对客户资金造成如此恶劣的影响，但我们不知道哪些交易所能够或不能在银行挤兑中幸存下来。

正如市场反应所示，Crypto.com 的 Cronos 代币 (CRO) 在一周内下跌了 55%，然后在最后一天有所缓解。 在过去的两天里，交易所的提款呈抛物线趋势——银行挤兑——CEO 进行了媒体巡回演出，以向所有人保证提款处理得很好，而且他们会生存下去。 

火币代币 (HT) 走同样的路，在过去两周下跌了近 60%。 火币最近提供了他们的 平台资产清单，显示火币全球和火币用户拥有约 900 亿美元的 HT。 目前尚不清楚火币全球拥有这 900 亿美元中的多少百分比，但这是相当大的缩减。 各地的交易所都在争先恐后地提供某种版本的储备证明，以试图平息市场。 

在 bitcoin leaving exchanges, it’s been a similar trend for the last three major market panic events: the March 2020 COVID crash, the Luna crash and now the FTX and Alameda crash. Bitcoin flies off exchanges as exchange and counterparty risk becomes priority No. 1 to mitigate. Overall, this is a welcome trend with over 122,000 bitcoin flowing out of exchanges over the last 30 days. It’s the lack of transparency, trust and excessive leverage in centralized institutions that have fueled the latest fall.

Having more of the bitcoin supply in self-custody is the way to counter this risk in the future. That said, assuming all of this bitcoin is going to self-custody and is intended to not come back to the market is a broad, unlikely assumption. Likely, market participants are taking whatever precaution they can regardless if their intent is to store this bitcoin long-term versus sending it back to an exchange later on.

以前的时候， bitcoin flowing in and out of exchanges was more of a signal for price, but as more paper bitcoin, wrapped bitcoin 在其他链上和 bitcoin financial products have grown, bitcoin exchange flows are more reflective of current user trends despite the last two major exchange outflows marking local price bottoms. Just 12.02% of bitcoin supply lives on exchanges today, down from its 2020 high of 17.29%. Although we’re only halfway through the month, November 2022 is shaping up to be the largest outflow month in history. 

The silver lining of the industry’s largest-ever exchange collapse is that a broad sense of distrust in counterparties and self-sovereign practices are set to increase among buyers of bitcoin going forward. While many have been speaking for over a decade on the importance of personal custody for the world’s first decentralized digital bearer asset, it often fell on deaf ears, as financial institutions like FTX seemed credible and trustworthy. Fraud assuredly can change that.

This dynamic, and the potential for greater amounts of contagion among the crypto space, has users fleeing to personal custody, with this past week bringing in the largest week-over-week decline in bitcoin on exchanges at -115,200 BTC.

Interestingly enough, this sell-off was unique in the sense that unlike previous sell-offs in recent years, it wasn’t triggered by a flood of bitcoin being sent to exchanges, instead moreso by an implosion of illiquid crypto collateral without many (or in the case of FTT, any) natural buyers.

鉴于我们在过去六个月中非常关注加密原生传染的风险，我们强烈建议我们的读者了解并研究自我监管的前景； 如果没有别的，为了省心。

最后的最后

"Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts." - 中本聪 在 FTX 上

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原始来源： Bitcoin 杂志