By Bitcoin 杂志 - 2 年前 - 阅读时间：8 分钟
HODL 模型： Bitcoin 非流动性供应超过发行量
The HODL model hypothesizes that bitcoin has crossed an inflection point, with the asset's illiquid supply outpacing the rate of new supply issuance.
文章 理性根源 山姆·鲁尔 (Sam Rule) 补充了写作。
抽象
The “HODL model hypothesis” is that bitcoin has crossed a historic inflection point where the asset’s illiquid supply is outpacing the rate of new supply issuance. Future halvings with lower supply issuance will only exacerbate this divergence.
Illiquid supply as a percentage of circulating supply will grow in a parabolic fashion as bitcoin’s digital scarcity drives investor behavior towards store of value as the dominant use case. As a result, illiquid supply will approach 80% of circulating supply by 2036.
免责声明：这是市场假设，并非投资建议；不应该这样对待它。
什么是非流动性供应？
It’s essential to understand the liquidity profile of bitcoin’s circulating supply. Quantifying supply across different levels of liquidity helps us better understand market supply dynamics, investor sentiment and bitcoin的价格轨迹。
Liquidity is quantified as the extent to which an entity spends their bitcoin. A HODLer that never sells has a liquidity value of 0 whereas someone who buys and sells bitcoin all the time has a value of 1. With this quantification, circulating supply can be broken down into three categories: highly liquid, liquid and illiquid supply.
Illiquid supply is defined as entities that hold over 75% of the bitcoin they take in. Highly-liquid supply is defined as entities that hold less than 25%. Liquid supply is in between.
本篇 非流动性供应量化和分析[1] 开发者 拉斐尔·舒尔茨·卡夫, Glassnode 联合创始人兼首席技术官。
The below chart shows the history of illiquid supply and circulating supply growth highlighting the average bitcoin added per day across each halving cycle. Since the third halving, illiquid supply growth has been outpacing circulating supply growth for the first time in bitcoin’s history, adding 1,694 bitcoin per day compared to 902 bitcoin per day. Illiquid supply bitcoin per day growth has accelerated 61.48% into this third halving epoch relative to the second halving, reversing a historic macro trend of decelerating, positive illiquid supply growth.
非流动性供应占总供应的百分比
At the time of writing, illiquid supply accounts for 76.22% of all circulating supply totalling 14,452,208 bitcoin. This is the highest illiquid supply percentage of circulating supply since December 2017. After reaching a bottom in July 2019, bitcoin’s illiquid supply share has grown from 71.47%.
即使在 bitcoin’s violent liquidations cascade and its 53.98% July 2021 drawdown from approximately $64,000 to below $30,000, illiquid supply share only fell to 74.49% from 76.01%. Over time, more of the circulating supply is finding its way into illiquid supply hands, i.e., investors who have shown that they are unlikely to part with the majority of their bitcoin.
持有模型
目前还没有做多少工作来模拟流通供应中非流动性供应份额不断增加可能对未来市场产生的影响。 HODL 模型旨在使用对数方程来做到这一点，为我们提供一个拐点，即非流动性供应增长开始超过新发行增长。方程定义如下：
下面的模型结果和图表显示了如果我们看到非流动性供应百分比继续这一趋势，未来可能会是什么样子。该模型的拐点出现在第三次减半时，即流通供应中的非流动性供应比例接近历史低点。在此拐点之后，HODL 模型采用保守的方法来预测非流动性供应增长，并旨在充当底线模型。
By the next (or fourth) halving in 2024, the illiquid supply “floor” percentage will be 72.5% or 14.3 million bitcoin. By the sixth halving in 2032, illiquid supply “floor” percentage will be 77.5% or 16 million bitcoin.
拐点的案例
As bitcoin’s block reward will fall from the current 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC and 1.5625 BTC over the next two halvings, there will be a significant reduction in new supply issuance. Approximately 164,000 new bitcoin will be issued per year during our fourth halving period, and approximately 82,000 will be issued per year during our fifth. This will result in approximately 984,000 BTC new supply issued over the next two halvings (roughly eight years).
2021 年，非流动性供应量增加了 366,060 BTC。 2020 年增加了 837,430 BTC，588,412 年增加了 2019 BTC。这是根据每年 31 月 XNUMX 日的非流动性供应量与上一年相比的差额计算的。我们必须经历重大的市场行为转变，才能看到未来十年非流动性供应量低于新增供应量下降的水平。这种类型的转变将使模型失效。
A key reason for using the inflection point to model HODL behavior is because of the historical, exponential growth seen in long-term holder supply. Although long-term holder supply fluctuates significantly during cyclical tops and bottoms, the macro trend of growing long-term holder supply is evident over bitcoin的一生。
一枚硬币放置 155 天或大约 XNUMX 个月后，根据之前的统计数据，它在统计上不太可能被花费 Glasssnode短期和长期持有者分析[2]. This sets the threshold for long-term holder supply which has significant crossover with illiquid supply as both capture bitcoin HODLer behavior.
下图显示了新供应进入流通的速度（通过区块奖励）以及流通供应成为长期持有者和/或非流动供应的速度。突出显示的橙色框似乎标志着 10 年下降趋势的底部。虽然我们知道进入流通的新供应量将继续进一步减少，但拐点处似乎会出现分歧。
非流动性供应会接近100%吗？
Bitcoin’s primary use case being a store of value and the hard cap of 21 million, one could assume that illiquid supply will trend towards 100%. The HODL model projects that the entire supply of bitcoin will become illiquid by 2088 (the HODL model end point), but this is unrealistic as the 21 million bitcoin supply hard cap will be approached but never reached. By the seventh halving in 2036, the HODL model projects illiquid supply to reach 80%. The HODL model aims to be conserative in its estimates of illiquid supply share growth.
该模型没有对重大市场行为变化或非流动性供应减少的未来拐点做出任何假设。随着非流动性供应量接近流通供应量的 100%，我们不知道什么下行压力可能会扭转非流动性供应量增长的趋势。
One potential downward pressure is the growth of bitcoin’s use case as a medium of exchange, which could increase bitcoin’s supply liquidity profile. Likely a reason for a structural change in illiquid supply growth (or second inflection point) is a decrease in demand after hyperbitcoinization, when bitcoin absorbs most value in the world.
That said, illiquid supply can grow indefinitely as bitcoin is infinitely divisible. The Lightning Network allows for milli-satoshis to be sent while the smallest unit on-chain is only a satoshi. Even with dividing the supply that can be used for more liquid use cases down into smaller units, it’s still likely we see a potential second inflection point where illiquid supply growth slows down.
HODL 模型影响
As illiquid supply rises, so do the market impacts of bitcoin’s digital scarcity. Liquid and highly-liquid supply will tighten as illiquid supply grows, leaving less bitcoin available on the market to acquire or trade.
New waves of demand that enter the market to acquire this declining available supply will then lead to exponential price increases. Exponential price increases will incentivize that some illiquid supply transition to liquid and highly-liquid supply as HODLers take profit, but this impact will be negligible relative to the overall impact of illiquid supply growth during bitcoin’s monetization phase.
This can be seen by looking at significant profit-taking periods in bitcoin’s history where illiquid supply had fluctuations but continued to grow emphasizing investors' overall long-term preference and view of the asset. The short-term decline in the illiquid supply share during July 2021, before resuming its upward trajectory, is one of those periods.
HODL 价格模型
The HODL model predicts a conservative estimate of bitcoin’s available supply where illiquid supply follows the growth curve we saw above. Since illiquid supply share nears a low at the inflection point, a logical consequence would be for bitcoin price to follow an inverse s-curve pattern.
With tighter liquid and highly-liquid supply, we see high increases in price at the beginning of bitcoin’s lifetime and then moderate price increases near the third halving’s inflection point. As available supply tightens again, we should expect higher price increases to follow.
为了模拟这种行为，我们可以使用指数逆 夸张的[3] 切线模型。
Wicked Smart Bitcoin 创造了 Bitcoin Stock2Fomo Hyperbolic Model[4] to show a potential model of bitcoin’s price during a fiat hyperinflation scenario.
We build further upon this model below to show bitcoin’s digital scarcity as the HODL price model. But instead of using a symmetric s-curve, we utilize the HODL model to create an asymmetric s-curve following the projections of illiquid supply.
价格模型没有考虑未来需求
Fiat inflation and an increasing illiquid supply share of circulating supply assumptions are the driving forces that create an inverse s-curve pattern. However, one of the HODL price model’s shortcomings is that it assumes a constant flow of demand for bitcoin’s available liquid and highly liquid supply.
New demand will not be a smooth constant resulting in the future bitcoin price to oscillate above and below the model’s predicted value. The model aims to take a more conservative stance on bitcoin’s price history.
延长周期
HODL 价格模型利用其中心的 HODL 模型拐点。拐点发生在 2020 年第三次减半，这支持了市场结构的重大变化，这可能有助于延长周期的想法。
与之前的周期相比，拐点（S 曲线最平坦的部分）附近的大量流动性和高流动性供应可能是造成当前相对横向和区间价格走势的原因。
尽管流动性和高流动性供应紧缩周期可能会再次缩短，但减半周期的递减效应可能会受到较小的影响。这可能会导致更自然的繁荣/萧条周期，其长度根据其他催化剂和市场条件而变化。
The model results and chart below show the inverse s-curve pattern following the HODL model’s hypothesis and illiquid supply projections. Unlike a log-curve with a continuous decreasing slope, the HODL price model has an increasing slope from the inflection point onwards. The HODL price model projects bitcoin price to reach $1,000,000 near the fifth halving around 2028.
参考资料
https://insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-liquid-supply/https://insights.glassnode.com/quantifying-bitcoin-hodler-supply/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse_hyperbolic_functionshttps://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1492511360193900547这是 Rational Root 的客座文章。所表达的意见完全是他们自己的，并不一定反映 BTC Inc 或 Bitcoin 杂志.
原始来源： Bitcoin 杂志