The Roads To Hyperbitcoinization: Describing The ‘Transition Agents’ Bringing Us Financial Freedom

By Bitcoin 杂志 - 2 年前 - 阅读时间：22 分钟
14 年 2022 月 11 日星期五下午 00:XNUMX

The Roads To Hyperbitcoinization: Describing The ‘Transition Agents’ Bringing Us Financial Freedom

These bottom-up “transition agents,” from private business to the freedom ladder, will be what drives us all to hyperbitcoin化。

本文为第二部分 在一系列 where we outline the views and predictions made by the Bitcoin community concerning the prospect of hyperbitcoinization. In our analysis, we highlight "transition agents": main players, groups of players or institutions that could accelerate the transition to a Bitcoin world. For each topic, we base our arguments on the references collected, and if possible, present data that aims to assess the probability of this outcome.

第一篇 described top-down scenarios initiated by institutional agents or governments whose influence is expected to trickle down to a wider audience. We identified monetary inflation and the rollout of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as probable scenarios initiated by central banks, while bitcoin hoarding, a rise in cross-border payments in bitcoin, bitcoin as a legal tender and even the advent of a hash war were identified as scenarios likely to induce government acceptance of Bitcoin. In view of the recent pronouncement by El Salvador, it appears that political agendas in South America are in a state of flux, in particular in countries with national elections scheduled for 2021 and 2022.

第二篇文章旨在了解企业、社区和个人实施的自下而上的举措。

自下而上的情景

We identified several notable hyperbitcoinization scenarios that emanate from two large groups of actors. The first group represents private-sphere-led initiatives brought together by established firms and startups. The second group is composed of grassroots initiatives mostly impulsed by the Bitcoin community whose main purpose is to educate and help new users to be onboarded. The article begins with a discussion of the initiatives driven by these two groups before turning to an examination of emerging individual behaviors. In this article, we have followed the principle of 方法论个人主义，在奥地利经济学派中很有名，它包括解释基于主观个人行为和动机的大规模社会现象。

私人领域

Figure one depicts scenarios initiated by private actors that could — intentionally or unintentionally — set off a chain of events driving to hyperbitcoin化。

业务采用

自成立以来 Bitcoin has demonstrated that it offers a wide variety of benefits to users. Its value proposition as a safe haven for individuals is without question one of its key enduring 故事. In August 2020, the world was surprised when MicroStrategy (MSTR), a NASDAQ-listed public technology company, announced that it was converting part of its cash reserves into bitcoin. Figure two depicts publicly-traded companies that reported owning bitcoin on their balance sheets or have converted a fraction of their cash reserves to bitcoin 随着时间的推移。

迄今为止，我们可以将这一趋势分为四个不同的领域：

Since the MicroStrategy announcement, many other companies have started to display an interest in Bitcoin, and we can expect to see more of these kinds of initiatives appearing over the coming months once decision-makers have weighed their choices.

If hyperbitcoinization comes to fruition, the revenues, costs, profits and valuations of all companies could be accounted for in bitcoin (Mimesis Capital and Burnett), and most valuable companies would be the ones holding the largest chunks of bitcoin on their balance sheet.

私人硬币

当 Meta（前身为 Facebook）在 2019 年宣布将推出一种新的数字货币时， 迪姆 （最初称为“Libra”），此举让政府和金融机构都措手不及。 Diem 的稳定价值来源于一篮子法定货币（美元、欧元、日元、英镑和新加坡元），这将使任何 Facebook 用户都可以像发送消息一样轻松直观地汇款。

尽管在许多方面都是一个吸引人的想法，但在某些方面提出了对信任一家以用户数据为食的公司的担忧。 一些人担心吴庭艳会体现最糟糕的金钱和 数据隐私惯例. On the other hand, the launch of a private digital currency like diem may serve to familiarize large numbers of users with this emerging technology and thereby act as an on-ramp to broader Bitcoin adoption. As users get acquainted with digital currencies, they will develop an understanding of bitcoin as a scarce, censorship-resistant and decentralized digital money.

10 倍系数

Bitcoin 通常被认为是 更好的货币形式 因为与过去和现在的货币形式相比，它结合了可移植性、可分割性或可替代性方面的重大改进，同时在抵制审查和固定供应方面带来了根本性的破坏。 尚未充分探索的一个方面是经济的交易成本。

几个世纪以来，人们一直在合作以最大限度地降低交易成本并更有效地生产他们无法单独生产的东西。 这 公司理论 Ronald Coase 描述了内部成本和外部成本之间的关系。 

当企业的外部交易成本高于其内部交易成本时，企业就会成长。 例如，如果外部交易成本低于内部交易成本，公司将通过外包来缩小规模。

Applying this theory to the banking sector, we can project that the Bitcoin protocol is likely to capture a significant portion of the banking industry value proposition, and it is not hard to imagine that it could probably capture it entirely once the Bitcoin stack becomes a more tangible reality (see figure three). Over time, we can expect the value created on top of the Bitcoin stack to first capture the value of the financial industry, and then surpass it.

If the transaction costs incurred by Bitcoin users are lower than transactions enabled by conventional payments rails, demand will shift to the cheaper channel. Following Brexit, 签证和万事达卡 他们的交换费增加了近 1%，进一步挤压了商家的底线。 这也发生在哥伦比亚，那里 商人 停止使用借记卡和信用卡以避免过高的费用。

在其他地方，想要降低交换和刷卡费用的商家也可以考虑使用其他支付方式，例如闪电网络作为 降低成本. 支付服务提供商可能会因客户群萎缩给利润率带来压力并最终降低其服务的竞争力而陷入死亡螺旋。 在银行和支付行业合规成本不断增加的背景下，这种情况的可能性不容忽视。

Transaction costs represent just one of several key aspects in the battle between established companies and Bitcoin-native services. In terms of remittances, in a recent research article, Bitrefill found that 方便快捷 对于某些客户群来说，与成本同样重要——如果不是更重要的话。 看看尼日利亚汇款的复杂过程，他们确定整个过程将从传统的现金汇款通常需要几天的时间减少到 20 到 30 分钟。 即使 30 分钟在当今金融界听起来像是一段漫长而痛苦的经历，但与现金汇款相比，它代表了十倍的收益。

Even if we could argue that Bitcoin doesn't exhibit yet the same number of transactions as large payment service providers, the payment infrastructure has grown at a rapid pace to the point of surpassing PayPal in terms of 交易量 2021 年，并提出一个可行的替代现有支付方式的方案（见图四）。

This adoption is illustrated by the increasing number of Bitcoin transactions observed in Nigeria. According to Bernard Parah, CEO of Bitnob, the transaction volume observed in Nigeria is driven primarily by businesses and commerce. Domestic controls on capital imposed by the Nigerian government considerably limit the capacities of individuals and companies to trade internationally. Lacking access to U.S. dollars, a mechanical company wanting to buy spare parts from China, for example, would not be able to find a seller because no one would accept the naira as a form of payment. The use of Bitcoin — either directly or through a third party who can pay a prospective seller in yuan — creates a credible alternative means of payment that thereby opens access to the global marketplace for our Nigerian mechanical company.

这些十倍因素的例子突出了交易成本的作用，但这并不是要淡化生态系统初创公司也需要关注交易可靠性和整体用户体验，尤其是与托管服务不同的自托管服务及其由法规和合规性规定的入职流程。

更广泛的公众关注

Long seen as the ultimate safe haven in the crypto world, bitcoin is still finding its way as a medium of exchange.

虽然理论上， 鲸鱼 和 原始流氓 (OGs) have had enough time to accumulate significant portions of bitcoin, the purchasing capacity of newcomers is limited by current price. The accumulation of satoshis is therefore the only option for those wishing to become familiar with this new asset class. Programmed regular purchases such as dollar-cost averaging (DCA) or loyalty programs offering cashbacks in satoshis are two options for earning bitcoin that are gaining in popularity.

The progressive integration of Bitcoin services into social networking and e-commerce platforms — or even games for which frequent microtransactions are familiar experience — could have the potential to onboard a large, digitally-savvy customer base in a short period of time.

Big tech companies already offer services to several hundred million or even billions of people worldwide (figure five). If any of these companies were to start accepting bitcoin as a means of payment, this would immediately trigger interest in the technology from a population that had little to no prior exposure to cryptocurrencies. Twitter’s announcement that it had developed a Lightning Network 小费功能 这将帮助人们顺畅地汇款，这说明大型社交媒体公司可以如何利用其网络的影响力。

E-commerce companies could also play a major role in spreading Bitcoin 使用。 正如蒂姆·德雷珀指出的，多年来，消费者已经通过购买可在电子商务平台上兑换的代金券和礼品卡来间接使用加密货币购买产品，这是支付次数最多的（图六）。

A 乐天 案例提供了一个类比，说明大型电子商务参与者通过其用户群扩展新支付技术的速度有多快。 通过允许客户使用信用卡支付，并逐渐在他们自己的平台之外进行支付，乐天逐渐成为日本最大的信用卡发行商之一。

金融世界

在过去的十年中， Bitcoiners have regularly hypothesized how events initiated within the financial industry might accelerate the visibility of Bitcoin, such as the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETF) 在美国，或者制定更明确的法规如何吸引 数万亿美元 from institutional investors. Even though more sophisticated financial products will likely assist in the wider adoption of Bitcoin and increase prices, actions taken by financial actors have not been particularly associated with the prospect of hyperbitcoin化。

然而，萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克莱 公告 发出一个 Bitcoin bond, at the end of Bitcoin week in El Salvador, once again caught many observers by surprise. The Bitcoin bond — also called the Volcano bond — is a $1 billion tokenized bond that will be used to finance the construction of the first Bitcoin city and infrastructure in the Central American country. The Bitcoin bond offers 几次中断 与传统债券市场相比：

The long-term reverberations for El Salvador are promising. Not only does this initiative provide for the construction of the geothermal energy infrastructure needed to power an entire new city, but it could also create a surplus of green energy that could be exported to neighboring countries. Most importantly, the Bitcoin strategy designed by the El Salvadoran government could attract the kind of global investment and knowledge workers that would help establish long-term prosperity in the region. By showing the rest of the world its openness to business and capital influx, El Salvador could replicate the success of the 1960年代的亚洲四小龙.

Bitcoin 用户社区

的成长 Bitcoin network is based in a strong community committed to the idea of a P2P electronic cash system. Orphaned since the disappearance of its creator Satoshi Nakamoto, the Bitcoin ecosystem continues to play a major role in spreading his ideas. By supporting technological developments and their diffusion, the Bitcoin community undergirds the process of technological familiarization within the public and private spheres addressed in this series of articles.

这个杂牌的国际爱好者社区绰号“网络大黄蜂” encompasses miners, node holders, investors, speculators, analysts, entrepreneurs, journalists, influencers, OSS contributors and developers who devote considerable time and energy to educate new users and contribute, defend and support Bitcoin.

The actors described in the following section are representative of this community of cyber hornets, and contribute to the global dissemination of Bitcoin 技术。

知名度

Influencers represent a group of thinkers, investors and entrepreneurs who have significant media coverage and habitually voice their opinions on Bitcoin. Bitcoin detractors regularly criticize the technology on both social and traditional media to 失信 influencers. Others, like Michael Saylor and Jack Dorsey, who understood the impact Bitcoin will have on their companies, frequently praise its invention and are joined in their praise by global 商界领袖. It may be difficult to quantify the long-term effects that influencers have on uptake of Bitcoin technologies, but debates around these new technologies help normalize them in the eyes and ears of the wider public.

然而，在短期内，这种促销也可能对公众的看法产生负面影响，正如我们在埃隆马斯克的社交媒体信息不一致之后所看到的那样。 经过一系列 鸣叫 当技术企业家针对工作量证明的能源消耗模式时，所经历的资产价格 强烈的变化 （图五）。

NGU技术爱好者

“Number go up” or “NGU,” is by far one of the most influential explanatory factors in Bitcoin adoption. In this scenario, newcomers drive the price of bitcoin up, while the increasing asset price attracts a new wave of investors, HODLers 和好奇。 如图 XNUMX 所示，从一开始的持续价格上涨会产生“害怕错过”（FOMO），即害怕不被包括在其他人正在经历的事情中。

“NGU 技术”是一种高效、清晰和自我维持的营销信息。 在图 2018 中，加密钱包应用程序下载数量的演变恰逢 2020 年和 XNUMX 年的牛市，没有理由相信这种关系在未来会发生变化。

Most hyperbitcoinization scenarios are based on the mass adoption of Bitcoin by several types of players — individuals, businesses, cities and eventually countries — in a sequential way, with this mass adoption ultimately driving up the price of bitcoin.

NGU 技术叙述得到了几种基于固定产量的价格模型的支持，在“S2F“和”延长周期和减少回报，”或基于能源消耗，在“Bitcoin 能源价值或者，Mimesis Capital 等参与者提出了一种方法，其中包括相对于可能获得的总市场份额来评估资产价格，如 M2 货币和全球财富示例所示（图七）。

所有这些模型都可能通过暗示未来的价格上涨和强化 NGU 技术的信息来影响公众的认知。

匿名教育者

Since the early years of Bitcoin, individuals initiating friends and family into the cryptocurrency world have been a key part of Bitcoin culture. Word of mouth led people to discover this open, decentralized, borderless and censorship-resistant currency. Over time, personal accounts have continued to grow as more structured initiatives have appeared alongside to evangelize those with inquiring minds.

Bitcoin Beach community in El Salvador is one of the more prominent examples of this process. Although the community remained under the radar for some time, it was instrumental in El Salvador’s decision to adopt bitcoin as legal tender, thereby positioning the country at the forefront of financial innovation.

这篇文章我准备写一个女生。我的灵感来自 Bitcoin Beach, other initiatives have tried to replicate its enthusiasm in other communities. In 塞内加尔, Bitcoin Developers Academy is aiming to train university students in the development of Bitcoin and Lightning Network applications by adapting the content and values of other BitcoinERS。

The notion of adaptation is crucial. The Bitcoin narrative is shaped by individuals imbued with predominantly Western values and for whom notions of individual freedom, privacy and self-sovereignty resonate. In many societies, 金钱被视为加强群体内社会关系的一种机制. In order to onboard new segments of the populations of Africa or Latin America, it is vital that the Bitcoin narrative be adapted to resonate with locals. Narratives centered around Bitcoin as a tool of individual freedom or means of privacy protection have done little to inspire imaginations in Eastern Africa. Instead, newcomers have grafted an alternative set of values onto Bitcoin that connect with the sense of community belonging encapsulated by the concept of Ubuntu，这通常被翻译为“我是因为我们是”。

If new users embrace the technology, their expectations will differ from those held by earlier adopters, and in response, the Bitcoin narrative, functionality and services will necessarily evolve. By introducing 多重签名共享托管 在其 Bitcoin beach wallet, Galoy gives another example of a necessary adjustment of the narrative in Central America, 描述为:

“...一种多重签名解决方案，其中冷藏资金的密钥由当地社区的老成员持有。这种模式减少了对社区之外中心化公司的依赖，同时也减少了网络成员加入的摩擦。”

Adaptation of functions and educational content conveyed by Bitcoin in response to uptake in new cultural contexts will be a source of significant innovation and enrichment for the community as a whole.

展望

Bitcoin As A Feedback Loop

了解一下 Bitcoin is often a personal, intrinsically-motivated journey that encourages inquiry into a range of 主题 as varied as the monetary system, technology, economy and philosophy. In this sense, Bitcoin plays the role of a virtual tutor who cultivates a thirst for knowledge in its followers. Once convinced of the superiority of Bitcoin over alternative currencies, individuals develop behaviors that reflect the nature of this invention.

“You don’t change Bitcoin，但 Bitcoin changes you.”

–Max Keizer

The limited supply of Bitcoin has encouraged hoarding behaviors from several types of actors. Prior to 2016, bitcoin traded below $1,000 and therefore acquiring multiple coins was considered an attainable goal for many people in the developed world.

Fast forward to 2021, when the price of bitcoin has appreciated considerably, such that it has become onerous for newcomers to acquire an entire bitcoin. The result is that newcomers are incentivized to buy smaller fractions of bitcoin. The accumulation of satoshis or “stacking sats” is the most concrete example of this practice that has pushed an entire generation of newcomers to acquire bitcoin in a programmatic and methodical way, as demonstrated by the success of companies proposing DCA services or cashback rewards.

One of the consequences of newcomers’ propensity to maximize the share of bitcoin in their asset portfolios — and hence, savings — is that if enough newcomers share this strategy, their cumulative efforts could propel the price of bitcoin significantly higher and eventually kick-off hyperbitcoin化。

For each new daily expense, Bitcoiners are faced with a choice of whether or not to spend. By spending, they deprive themselves of the possibility of buying more Bitcoins, while if they refrain from spending the money saved can be converted into satoshis. This behavior clearly indicates a preference for future reward over immediate superficial spending. In this way, Bitcoin has transformed people from consumers into savers and can be seen as a reference of value anchored in the mind of consumers in a way that supports prudence.

By privileging the essential over the superficial, the durable over the fragile, and the fruitful over the futile, Bitcoin stands poised to help our society respond to the economic, environmental and social crises we are facing. For the first time, the introduction of a currency whose existence is linked directly to a conversion of energy will allow us to systematically integrate energy not only into our currency, but into our economic model.

This sends a strong signal given that Bitcoin is a social movement under expansion. By being the first to incorporate energy into the economic system, Bitcoin could act as a feedback loop that puts an end to the superficial consumerist models permitted and sustained by fiat monetary systems.

为繁荣而射击

大规模 Bitcoin adoption may seem like a remote possibility for some, but it has nevertheless become a full-fledged financial tool for an eclectic crowd. The West tends to view the countries from the 全球南方 as lagging in terms of the latest technological innovations, but following a series of interviews, the authors of this article have come to believe that where Bitcoin is concerned, the level of technological sophistication surpasses that found in many developed countries.

 In the table above, case one depicts how Bitcoin adoption by low-income families resolves challenges that may be difficult for Western readers to understand. Yusuf Nessary, co-founder of the 建于 Bitcoin 基金会, 回忆说，这些家庭——有时与主要城市中心隔绝——必须长途跋涉才能接收家庭成员发送的现金汇款。 到最近的城镇旅行不仅会产生大量费用，而且还意味着要为每天生活的家庭放弃一天的工资。 将数字支付直接引入手机可以通过消除前往最近的银行或 ATM 的费用来显着改善用户的生活。

Cases two and three depict scenarios where individuals and businesses have embraced Bitcoin as a payment method in order to sell their products or services more smoothly and connect to the global economy (#paymeinbitcoin). In an interview with these authors, Bitcoin developer Fodé Diop anticipated that if the digital workforce in Senegal starts selling their services to foreign companies, capital injected into the country will reap benefits not only at the individual level, but also country-wide.

This analysis was shared by Nigerian Bitnob CEO Bernard Parah, who considers that bringing a viable payment solution in Nigeria would solve 50% of the problem and could ultimately help flatten the world, as he said in his own interview with these authors. Diop likewise 预言 Bitcoin could disrupt or even put an end to the brain drain that has impacted emerging economies.

与欧洲的老龄化社会相比，非洲国家的人口主要由 25 岁以下的青年组成，并且呈现出动态的人口增长（图八）。 如果这些年轻人继续面临高失业率和糟糕的未来前景，社会和经济形势可能会变得爆炸性——尤其是在年轻人比例最高的国家。

上面概述的案例强调了信任最小化资金成为国内和国际贸易推动者的潜力，并帮助 人类社会规模 因为它具有普遍的互操作性，不能贬值或没收，并且可以绕过传统的、基于信任的银行系统的限制。

自由阶梯

Bitcoin can be seen as a polymorphic tool that adapts to the needs of each new user. Bitcoin as a privacy tool or means of self-sovereignty has been its predominant narrative, however self-sovereign identity (SSI) is a concept of the global “rich” that stands outside the reach of the 800 million people who do not have 获得电力、电话或互联网连接（图九）。

“在西方世界行得通的东西不会在非洲停留！ 我们需要重塑叙事或展示不同的叙事。” 

——福德·迪奥普

It should also be noted that the introduction of Bitcoin alone is not enough to lift the global population out of extreme poverty. Donations and development programs need to be coordinated with local agents of change, like those being carried out by the Built With Bitcoin 基金会。

基于“主权阶梯”，后来由 安妮塔·波什（Anita Posch）, below we depict the relationship between the potential threats and living conditions faced by individuals, groups of people and society, with the freedom that stands to be ushered in by Bitcoin. We generalized this concept beyond individual sovereignty because, as mentioned above, this concept still remains abstract to a large part of the population.

This “freedom ladder” illustrates how Bitcoin is poised to bring about a range of solutions that will make it possible to overcome numerous threats on an incremental basis. Although the level of threat faced by an individual living under the oppression of an authoritarian regime or for a group of migrants fleeing an economy ruined by inflation differs, Bitcoin provides solutions for a variety of situations.

The bottom of the ladder includes infrastructural requirements, as these basic needs should be addressed prior to considering access to Bitcoin.

有一些极端情况可能会迫使某些人 人群 直接跳到自由阶梯的最高层，以保护自己免受突然和暴力的威胁。 然而，对于一个用户或一群人来说，要了解自我监管或匿名交易所涉及的内容，通常需要在更长的时间内经历外部威胁，有时是逐渐增加的，就像一个可以更好地承受的免疫系统一样暴露于外部攻击。

结论

Bitcoin is a unique invention in many ways. Unlike the other great inventions of the modern era such as electricity, the computer or the internet, whose early adoption was initiated by either private companies or public institutions, Bitcoin has always targeted individuals: the marginalized and misfits of the system.

Bitcoin adoption is quiet and goes almost unnoticed by the mainstream agents of influence. Designed to scale by minimizing trust and eliminating dependency on third parties, it is difficult to obtain reliable aggregate data on the extent of Bitcoin adoption by a given country or a segment of the population. The permanent evolution of the protocol — of which 直根 是最新的例子——强化了这一隐私和可扩展性目标，并将继续挑战定量分析的尝试。

Many questions remain unanswered about hyperbitcoinization and its micro- and macroeconomic consequences. This article attempted to identify emerging scenarios that may lead to hyperbitcoinization. However, it remains difficult to predict how these different scenarios will relate to one another, and at what speed they or any other possible scenarios may occur.

Many challenges remain to be solved before we see a broader adoption and, as Ray Youssef, CEO of Paxful, stated in an interview with these authors, it is crucial to relentlessly educate users, improve their experience and above all adapt the narrative to make Bitcoin 更具包容性。

This article sought to identify and categorize initiatives that could lead to hyperbitcoinization, thereby transmuting expectations into reality. Although the mere prospect of hyperbitcoinization has raised immense hopes for many people, at this time we are still far from realizing the transformative power of Bitcoin 在我们的生活中。

“我们倾向于高估一项技术的短期影响，而低估长期影响。” 

–阿马拉定律

In view of the dynamism of communities developing islands of resilience across the world, it is not hard to imagine how the voluntary actors of hyperbitcoinization will likely arise from grassroots initiatives, while governments and central banks — through their binding interventions — will unwittingly become its involuntary actors. This hypothesis resonates with the original vision of Bitcoin that it still carries to this day: a P2P electronic cash system.

我们想表达我们的感谢 安妮塔·波什（Anita Posch），“Anita Posch Show”播客主持人； 优素福·奈萨里, co-founder and director of the Built With Bitcoin 基金会 雷·优素福，Paxful 首席执行官； FodéDiop, founder at Bitcoin Developers Academy; 伯纳德·帕拉，Bitnob 首席执行官； 盖尔·桑切斯·史密斯，“Bitcoin Lo Cambia Todo”; and 加洛伊的团队在我们的采访中与我们分享了宝贵的见解； 并感谢 Jennifer McCain 审查整体可读性。

参考资料

这是 Fulgur Ventures 的客座帖子。 所表达的意见完全是他们自己的，不一定反映 BTC, Inc. 或 Bitcoin 杂志.

原始来源： Bitcoin 杂志