运用 Bitcoin Derivatives To Discern Speculation From

By Bitcoin 杂志 - 1 年前 - 阅读时间：3 分钟
29 年 2022 月 3 日星期四上午 00:XNUMX

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分析 bitcoin derivatives gives a window into the state of the market conditions and can provide clues for when bitcoin has reached an absolute bottom.

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This article covers some of the recent action in the bitcoin derivatives market, as well as touches on the evolving relationship between bitcoin and the legacy financial system.

The action in global capital markets has been intense, with massive volatility across currencies, more selling in bonds and a brief bullish deviation for bitcoin, which excited the bulls.

As bitcoin pushed back above $20,000, there was some chatter of a potential decoupling, as bitcoin was up over 7% while U.S. equity markets were down approximately 4% over the last week. While we would certainly love to see a moment where bitcoin finds relief during an increasingly tumultuous environment in the legacy financial system, we remain skeptical on this outcome over the near future, as the data just doesn’t support it.

Some people took this chart to mean that bitcoin was decoupling from equities

We cannot emphasize enough that the current trading environment for bitcoin is less about bitcoin itself and more about the dollar. As yields across maturities and currencies are soaring higher, the value of global assets is collapsing in tandem, which will subsequently lead to a day of reckoning where everything sells in tandem.

正如我们喜欢说的那样，一切泡沫都在消散，因为作为一切基础的资产——美国国债，正在继续流血。

Let’s return back to bitcoin for a moment. What was the period of outperformance from, and can we expect more of it soon?

The simple answer is that the type of buying that was occurring — long positions in the bitcoin futures market — is never one of sustainable nature.

A surge in open interest led to the increase in bitcoin 车资

成千上万 bitcoin worth of net buying became net sellers in hours, as the surge in open interest that led to the increase in market price quickly fell underwater.

成千上万 bitcoin worth of net buying became net sellers in hours

Our belief in regards to the bitcoin derivatives market and its insight into the state of the market cycle is the following:

当浮动利率显着为负时，现货抛售和杠杆平仓首当其冲。永续期货综合体的可变利率可以让我们了解多头或空头是否过于激进。

When the funding rate is significantly negative, it can be because of both closing long positions driving the price below the spot market or due to aggressive short positions pushing the price lower. The funding rates in today's market environment are much more muted than the craziness seen in 2021.

The funding rates in today's market environment are much more muted than the craziness seen in 2021

Our expectation is that a volatility in legacy markets would lead to a large liquidation in bitcoin derivatives, driving the price below spot markets, while short traders piled on. This would be seen by a drastically negative perpetual futures funding rate (variable interest rate that incentivizes traders to settle prices close to the spot market rate).

就 2020 年和 2021 年市场触底的水平而言，我们还没有看到这一点。

据我们估计，今天市场不存在。