你还早：客观地看待 Bitcoin 采用

By Bitcoin 杂志 - 1 年前 - 阅读时间：6 分钟
6 年 2023 月 8 日星期一 00:XNUMX

你还早：客观地看待 Bitcoin 采用

今年 bitcoin users are there? How should we define a bitcoin user? An analysis for categorizing and tracking user growth compared to other estimates.

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Bitcoin 用户采用

One of the strongest cases for bitcoin is its growing network effects. For bitcoin to continue to grow in the future, it needs adoption and demand. That demand comes from either growth in more capital flowing into the network and/or growth in its number of users.

Yet, defining someone who uses the Bitcoin network or is a user of bitcoin the asset is incredibly difficult and can have many definitions depending on whom you ask. This piece aims to aggregate and analyze the various definitions and estimates for bitcoin users, define our preferred view of bitcoin adoption and make our own estimations for current bitcoin 用户。

How Do You Define A Bitcoin 用户？

There’s no “right” answer in defining a bitcoin user but we considered the following questions when coming up with our definition:

It’s likely best to think about bitcoin user adoption in stages or as different buckets. Some rough categories to think about different user types:

Many of the eye-popping adoption numbers that we see today tend to track these categories together. Maybe that’s the right approach for a high-level view of potential adoption and the first touchpoint, but it doesn’t tell us much about the number of users using bitcoin for its primary purpose: decentralized peer-to-peer cash where users can store and transact value on a separate monetary network. Ideally, we want to track the growth of heavy users to reflect meaningful adoption of bitcoin.

The below table aggregates some of the key bitcoin user estimates that have been published over the last six years to give you an idea of how varying these estimates can be. Looking at casually interested users, numbers from 2022 range from 200 to 800 million users. These are counts from survey samples, data from on-chain analytics and includes exchange users. All of these studies have different definitions and methodologies for calculating adoption, showing how difficult it is to compare estimates out there today. 

Technology Adoption S-Curve: Internet Versus Bitcoin

新技术在获得市场份额时通常会经历一个 S 曲线周期。人口的采用率属于典型的统计钟形曲线。 S 曲线仅反映了随着时间的推移创新技术的典型采用路径。

Many of the classic projections for S-curve adoption use a more high-level view of the casually interested users to track bitcoin growth compared to internet adoption. Basically, these estimates track interested users of all types: those who have had any touch points with bitcoin from buying a little bit on an exchange, having a wallet with $5 worth of bitcoin 到 bitcoin user storing greater than 50% of their net worth in self custody.

Tracking casually interested users would give people a ballpark estimate of around the same adoption curve as the internet. However, if we’re really interested in tracking meaningful, lasting bitcoin adoption then we would argue that tracking the number of heavy users is a better measure for the current state of bitcoin adoption and emphasizes just how early in Bitcoin’s lifecycle we are. When looking at the more popular analysis comparisons that have previously circulated (included below), they paint a picture that bitcoin adoption is much further along than we calculate it to be. 

2020年， 克洛修斯 wrote a thread that analyzes bitcoin adoption in a similar way that we set out to do in this piece. His conclusions show a similar view to our own: Significant bitcoin adoption is much lower than the estimates of 10-15% penetration or roughly 500 million users that are commonly thrown around today. In fact, he suggests that bitcoin adoption by what we would consider “heavy users” is at 0.01% penetration of the global population.

地址

The easiest place to start with estimating users is on-chain addresses. Addresses don’t translate to the number of users, but can act as a rough proxy for overall growth. Unique addresses with bitcoin amounts can be growing as new users acquire bitcoin or as current bitcoin holders use many unique addresses to spread out their holdings — a common privacy practice.

We’ve seen an explosion in address growth since 2012 from just under 1 million to nearly 42 million unique addresses today. Let’s say we use an assumption for average addresses per person to be 10 — which is just a rough guess — then the ceiling of bitcoin users who have their own addresses is around 4.2 million. 

From a USD perspective, there are only 5.3 million addresses holding at least $1,000 worth of bitcoin. Using our rough assumption of 10 addresses per person again then we’re under 1 million users with $1,000 worth of bitcoin. With a global median wealth per adult of $8,360, a bitcoin allocation of $1,000 would make up a significant share of nearly 12%. A relatively small allocation for some, but considering bitcoin is global and has higher adoption rates in less wealthy countries, the benchmark seems fitting. 

Using our definition of “heavy user” to calculate, if we use addresses with a certain threshold of BTC or USD and make some rough assumptions around addresses per person along with not counting exchange users or addresses holding bitcoin on the behalf of others, then this approach estimates only 593,000 bitcoin 用户。

We go into more detail about other ways to analyze bitcoin 用户在 关于子堆栈的文章. No matter which way you cut the data, there is not a large amount of the worldwide population who would be considered heavy users who self-custody a significant threshold of bitcoin.

结论

The analysis in this article is meant to highlight how difficult it is to define and track bitcoin user growth in a reliable way.

We are highlighting a lower penetration of adoption not to dissuade readers from the growth of bitcoin’s network effects so far, but rather to highlight the substantial opportunity of its potential growth in the future. 

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原始来源： Bitcoin 杂志