Bitcoin 價格預測：艾略特波浪理論對 BTC 的下一步建議是什麼

作者 NewsBTC - 1 年前 - 閱讀時間：5 分鐘
8 年 2022 月 5 日星期四下午 25:XNUMX

Bitcoin 價格預測：艾略特波浪理論對 BTC 的下一步建議是什麼

任何 Bitcoin price prediction is just a guess without a basis to make the forecast. The 庫存流模型 這曾經是對價格上漲預期最常被引用的原因，但現在已經失敗，技術分析、鏈上信號和統計數據成為尋找未來價格目標的最佳機會。

Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis forecasting methodology discovered in the 1930s, which is based on identifying extremes in investor psychology combined with distinctive price behavior. With Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies being so susceptible to the ebb and flow of investor sentiment, here is what Elliott Wave Theory suggests about what is to come for Bitcoin 價格。

BTC 價格走勢簡史

Bitcoin price index chart begins in late 2010, with the first-ever cryptocurrency trading at only pennies on the dollar. By the end of 2011, the price per BTC grew by more than 60,000%. Before the year came to a close, it has lost 94% of its value.

從大約 2 美元的低點開始，另一個看漲衝動又增加了 60,000% 的投資回報率 到2013年高峰. 接下來是另一個陡峭的修正階段，將加密貨幣削減了 86%。

What followed was arguably the most talked about bull run since the dot com bubble, when in 2017 Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000 per coin. By now, we can see that extreme price swings and pivots in investors sentiment lead to boom and bust cycles across crypto. Bitcoin once again found a bottom at $3,000 in 2018, which will be the basis of the remainder of the analysis.

艾略特波浪理論簡介

於 1930 年代由 Ralph Nelson Elliott 首次發現， 艾略特波浪理論 是解釋市場如何隨時間增長的基礎。 EWT 中的動力波是市場前進三步、後退兩步的一個例子。

這些步驟在生長階段和矯正階段之間來回交替。 動力波共有五個波浪——奇數波浪沿主要趨勢方向移動，偶數波浪與主要趨勢相反。

儘管修正階段確實會導致價值急劇下降，但增量增長始終保持在主要趨勢方向。 衝擊波和修正波都以不同的程度和時間尺度出現。

For example, a five-wave impulse on the daily timeframe could only be a tiny portion of a multi-century Grand Supercycle. Figuring out where Bitcoin is along in its various wave cycles and degrees can help to predict future price action.

EWT 回顧當前的市場週期

Each wave in an impulse has unique characteristics which can help an analysis decipher where an asset is in an overall motive wave. Following the 2018 bear market bottom, crypto had a clean slate to move up from. In 2019, Bitcoin rallied to $13,800, showing the market there was still life in the speculative asset.

幾乎整個反彈都回撤了，這是第 2 波修正的共同特徵。 修正往往在尖銳和扁平式修正之間交替。 尖銳的修正由之字形表示。 第 2 波表現得像鋸齒形，不可否認，2020 年 XNUMX 月 黑色星期四 崩潰是一次急劇的修正。

Wave 3 in Elliott Wave is typically the longest and strongest wave, marked by much wider participation than wave 1. The crowd begins piling at this point. Bitcoin gained national media attention as it reached new all-times during this wave. From there, things get more confusing.

如果 BTCUSD 已經完成其第 4 波和第 5 波階段，或者如果第 4 波仍在進行中而第 5 波尚未到來，Elliott Wave 從業者存在分歧。 使用這兩種情況，可以考慮一些目標。

看跌和看漲的情景和目標

在看跌的情況下， 截斷波 5 結束了 Bitcoin bull run and sent the crypto market into its first true bear phase, with wave 5 of V finished and done, ending the primary cycle (pictured above).

Completed bull markets often retrace back into wave 3/4 territory when the motive wave is completed. Bearish price targets put the negative Bitcoin price prediction from anywhere between $9,000 to as low as $2,000 in a complete collapse of the market. A larger catastrophe in the stock market and housing could ultimately do the trick by pulling whatever capital that’s left out of crypto.

The bullish scenario is much more positive, and better fits with what Elliott Wave Theory calls “the right look” and proper counting. In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin is in the final stages of an 擴大平面修正，並且一旦情緒和價格極端結束，頂級加密貨幣將快速設置另一個看漲的價格極端和情緒轉換，比任何人都準備的要快得多。

Using EWT To Make A Bitcoin 價格預測

艾略特波浪理論背後的魔力及其影響金融市場增長的原因在於它與斐波那契數列的關係。 斐波那契 數字基於與黃金比例相關的斐波那契數列。 斐波那契數列為 0、1、1、2、3、5、8、13、21 等。

在艾略特波浪理論中，有 21 種從簡單到復雜的調整模式。 一個動力波是 5 個向上的波，而調整波是 3 個向下的波，將它們加起來總共是 8 個。 具有所有子波的完全實現的推動波是 21 波向上，而調整階段最多是 13 波向下。 序列中的每個斐波那契數都包含在某種容量中。

修正也停止在斐波那契回撤水平，並且衝動達到作為價格目標的斐波那契擴展。 浪5通常在幅度上等於浪1或浪3。 如果第 5 浪延長，並且它通常處於加密狀態，則第 5 浪的目標可能落在第 1.618 浪的 3 或第 1.618 浪和第 1 浪之和的 3 之間的某個位置。

Bitcoin price reached the 3.618 extension from the bear market bottom, making it possible that the top cryptocurrency overshoots once again. On the lowest end, a 1.618 price target would put the peak of BTC for this cycle somewhere close to $96,000 per coin, while another 3.618 extension could take the top cryptocurrency all the way to $194,000 per BTC.

這使得 Bitcoin price prediction using EWT anywhere between $100K to $200K before the cycle is over. You can watch this Bitcoin price prediction unfold in real-time by bookmarking the idea on TradingView.

只剩幾天時間可以好好利用 @elliottwaveintl's “The 12 Days of Elliott”

Take a peek & sign-up here: https://t.co/IuPkJZ5IM7

Watch your inbox for a new resource each day. Everyone gets access to the free resources till Dec. 16.

Happy Holidays! pic.twitter.com/DCqrdtNfDp

— 托尼·“公牛”·斯皮洛特羅 (@tonyspilotroBTC) 2022 年 12 月 8 日

iStockPhoto的特色圖片，TradingView.com的圖表

原始來源： NewsBTC