以太坊合併：ETHBTC 如何暗示風險偏好的回歸

作者 NewsBTC - 1 年前 - 閱讀時間：4 分鐘
20 年 2022 月 9 日，星期三 55:XNUMX AM

以太坊合併：ETHBTC 如何暗示風險偏好的回歸

The merge is near, so it’s Ethereum time to shine. The eternal second most popular cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been outperforming bitcoin for the last few days. Is the reason the return of the market’s appetite for risk? Or is it just the fact that Ethereum’s developers announced a specific date for the mythical merge? Let’s examine the numbers, the facts, and the experts’ opinions to figure out exactly what’s going on.

In The Weekly Update, Arcane Research’s newsletter, they point out that the ETHBTC pair surged “ from 0.053 on July 12th to 0.7 on July 19th.” It’s at “levels not seen since mid-May,” but why? According to Arcane, it “might be related to increased risk appetite in the market, evident by sharp altcoin recoveries across the board.” They identify another factor, “Celsius repaid its DeFi loans. This contributed to reducing the downward gravitational pull enforced by potential liquidations and contagion-related uncertainty.”

當然，還有合併。

The facts are the facts, Ethereum is on a roll. In a previous report, NewsBTC analyzed the state of the market:

“以太坊現在已經突破了一個重要的技術點。 在上個月大部分時間都處於 50 日移動均線下方之後，ETH 已經翻轉了這一技術水平，現在輕鬆地位於該均線上方。 這意味著從看跌到看漲的徹底 180 度轉變，尤其是在短期內。”

至於可能的原因，Arcane Research 已經列出了兩個。 不過，最主要的是合併的可能性。 回到每週更新：

“14 月 19 日星期四，以太坊基金會成員 Tim Beiko 建議 XNUMX 月 XNUMX 日作為合併的暫定啟動日期。 這可能有利於 ETH，導致上週的飆升。 公告發布後，Lido 質押的 ETH 代幣已接近 ETH 平價。”

In another NewsBTC report, we quoted another expert trying to make sense of the situation. According to Youwei Yang, director of financial analytics at StoneX, the causes for the recent surge are:

“首先是最近宣布的以太坊“合併”更新時間，這應該會使網絡顯著提高能源效率。 楊聲稱“平息”宏觀經濟焦慮是第二個。

從工作量證明到權益證明共識機制的轉變確實消耗了更少的能源，但也帶來了一系列問題。 討論這些超出了本文的範圍。 對於以太坊持有者來說，重要的部分是合併最終將為區塊鏈帶來原生質押。 已經鎖定在信標鏈中的數千個 ETH 最終將產生真正的結果，一種新的用戶——驗證者將會崛起。 

這足以證明價格飆升是合理的嗎？ 絕對地。 是否保證會在 19 月 XNUMX 日進行合併？ 考慮到以太坊已經五次推遲了難度炸彈，可能不會。

According to Arcane, “contagion seems to be resolving now, with prices stabilizing. This recovery may be viewed as a healthy confirmation of the market normalizing as market stress settles down.” Their interpretation of the situation might be overly optimistic, though. A pseudonymous Twitter user that identifies himself as “a trader/defi analyst at a major crypto fund and use Nansen almost daily,” thinks more pain is on the way with or without the merge.

4/ There are dozens of wallets just like these that 3AC still has with thousands of ETH. It’s very likely that all of these wallets are going to be liquidated in order to pay back creditors. Check out the number of funds that have been moved around from just one wallet alone. pic.twitter.com/75HkR097zV

— jbjbjb (@bryptobricks) July 19, 2022

The Three Arrows Capital trial is still unfolding, and “3AC still has with thousands of ETH. It’s very likely that all of these wallets are going to be liquidated in order to pay back creditors.” If that happens, it’s “going to cause a harsh sell-off across the broader crypto ecosystem, setting up the next catalyst down.”

很抱歉給以太坊的遊行帶來了影響，但這些都是事實。 不過，祝合併好運。

原始來源： NewsBTC