檢查短期 Bitcoin 持有者行為

By Bitcoin 雜誌 - 2 年前 - 閱讀時間：2 分鐘
26 年 2021 月 10 日星期二下午 00:XNUMX

檢查短期 Bitcoin 持有者行為

Examining the dynamics of short-term holders during bitcoin bull markets and bear markets.

以下內容來自最近一期的 Deep Dive， Bitcoin 雜誌的優質市場通訊。 成為第一批獲得這些見解和其他鏈上信息的人 bitcoin 市場分析直接發送到您的收件箱， 現在訂閱.

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The Daily Dive #081 - HODLer Engineered Supply Squeeze

In previous Daily Dives we examined the supply dynamics of long-term and short-term holders and what it means for the bitcoin market. Today, we will further examine the dynamics of short-term holders during bull markets and bear markets.

Before we begin, it is important to define some terminology for those who may not be familiar.

In this piece, when referring to cost basis, we are referring to the realized price, which uses the price at which the coins were last transferred on the Bitcoin blockchain. Due to the transparent nature of Bitcoin’s ledger, we can quantify a cost basis of various cohorts of holders. Below are a few other terms and abbreviations that will be mentioned frequently in today’s Daily Dive.

MVRV = Market Value (price) to Realized Price Ratio

審判 = Long-Term Holder

STH = Short-Term Holder

讓我們深入研究。

Short-Term Hodler Cost-Basis Analysis

For information about the quantification of short/long term holders click here

Pictured below is the cost basis for short-term holders over time:

It is clear that the STH cost basis oscillates around the bitcoin price, but when analyzing further, bull markets are driven by new capital flowing into the market, and as a result price will far outpace STH as new money competitively bids for allocations. Examine the trends between STH cost basis and price since the beginning of 2020, as well as the 2017 bull market.

We can display the same value as a ratio using STH MVRV (short-term holder market value to realized value ratio). Notice how 1.0 acts as support for STH MVRV in bull markets?

This can be thought of as new participants aggressively defending their average cost basis, as they continue accumulating a position size.

原始來源： Bitcoin 雜誌