By Bitcoin 雜誌 - 2 年前 - 閱讀時間：3 分鐘
衡量信念 Bitcoin 有儲備風險的持有人
Reserve risk is a ratio between the current price of bitcoin and the conviction of long-term holders.
以下內容來自最近一期的 Deep Dive， Bitcoin 雜誌的優質市場通訊。 成為第一批獲得這些見解和其他鏈上信息的人 bitcoin 市場分析直接發送到您的收件箱， 現在訂閱.
In today's Daily Dive we will take an in-depth look at Reserve Risk.
資源： GlassnodeReserve risk is a metric founded by 漢斯·豪格, and it is a cyclical market indicator which aims to quantify the risk/reward of allocating to bitcoin based on the conviction of long-term holders. Simply, reserve risk is a ratio between the current price of bitcoin and the conviction of long-term holders. The current price can be thought of as the incentive to sell, and the conviction of long-term holders/investors can be quantified as the opportunity cost of not selling.
We will more thoroughly describe and quantify these metrics further along in the piece.
下面是一個 excerpt from Glassnode Insights:
"The general principles that underpin reserve risk are as follows:
Every coin that is not spent accumulates coin-days which quantify how long it has been dormant. This is good tool for measuring the conviction of strong hand HODLers.As price increases, the incentive to sell and realise these profits also increases. As a result, we typically see HODLers spending their coins as bull markets progress.Stronger hands will resist the temptation to sell and this collective action builds up an 'opportunity cost.' Everyday HODLers actively decide NOT to sell increases the cumulative unspent 'opportunity cost' (called the HODL bank).Reserve Risk takes the ratio between the current price (incentive to sell) and this cumulative 'opportunity cost' (HODL bank). In other words, Reserve Risk compares the incentive to sell, to the strength of HODLers who have resisted the temptation."Reserve Risk is 低 when HODLer conviction is high (unspent opportunity cost is high and increasing), and price is low.
Reserve Risk is 高 when HODLer conviction is low (unspent opportunity cost is low) and price is high.
Reserve Risk Calculation
As shown in the graphic above, reserve risk is defined as “price” divided by “HODL bank.” While price obviously doesn't need an explanation, what is HODL bank, and what signal does it provide?
As stated earlier, reserve risk is a ratio of the incentive to sell and the opportunity cost of not selling. HODL bank quantifies this “opportunity cost of not selling.”
硬幣天數被毀
In prior Daily Dives, we have covered coin days destroyed (CDD) as an on-chain metric, so we won’t cover it extensively here, but readers can find additional information on CDD here.
Essentially, with the complete transparency of the Bitcoin blockchain, one can see how many days each and every coin has been held and/or spent. When there is a large number of CDD on a particular day, it shows old coins are being spent/changing hands. Further, if we divide CDD by circulating supply, we can standardize the metric for an increasing circulating supply over time.
While the stand-alone metric of supply-adjusted CDD itself doesn't provide much signal if any, it serves as a key input for reserve risk, and here's how:
原始來源： Bitcoin 雜誌