不，克里斯蒂娜·拉加德，通貨膨脹並非“無中生有”

By Bitcoin 雜誌 - 1 年前 - 閱讀時間：5 分鐘
2 年 2022 月 1 日星期五上午 38:XNUMX

不，克里斯蒂娜·拉加德，通貨膨脹並非“無中生有”

ECB President Christine Lagarde declared that inflation "came from nowhere,” yet Bitcoiners know this isn’t really the case.

這是由獨立記者和作者 Federico Rivi 撰寫的一篇觀點社論。 Bitcoin 火車通訊。

We are raising interest rates "because we are fighting inflation. Inflation has come out of practically nothing.” So said European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, on the Irish talk show 晚晚秀 on October 28, 2022. Words apparently contradicting a statement that came shortly afterwards in the same interview. Inflation, 她說, is caused "by Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. [...] This energy crisis is causing massive inflation that we have to defeat.”

加息

採訪前一天，歐洲中央銀行 引起興趣 進一步加息 75 個基點，使過去三次會議的總增長率達到 2%：自 2009 年以來的最高水平。很可能不會就此結束，因為管理委員會 計劃 “進一步加息以確保通脹及時回到 2% 的中期目標。”

根據本 最新數據，歐元區的價格上漲實際上達到了過去 20 年來從未有過的水平：9.9 月份與去年同月相比增長了 22%。 拉脫維亞、立陶宛和愛沙尼亞等國家的價格分別上漲了 22.5%、24.1% 和 XNUMX%。

在對術語含義的廣泛共識中 通貨膨脹, however, there is a major inconsistency. A distortion of the real concept that leads leaders, experts - and consequently the media - to attribute different causes to the word, depending on the convenience of the moment. When the cause, in reality, is always and only one.

通貨膨脹和物價上漲是不同的

對於許多人來說，通貨膨脹現在是價格上漲的代名詞。 這不僅是一種普遍的看法，而且經濟學教科書和官方語言也採用了這種含義。 根據 劍橋詞典 通貨膨脹是“價格普遍持續上漲”。

但這是真的嗎？ Bitcoin teaches one thing: Don't trust, verify. 而通過驗證，一個問題就出現了：因果顛倒。

通貨膨脹被視為特定事件的結果：能源危機、芯片短缺、乾旱都可能導致某些行業的商品和服務價格上漲。 但實際上通貨膨脹，就其本義而言，並不意味著價格上漲，它表明了其原因。

線索直接來自詞源：通貨膨脹來自拉丁詞 通貨膨脹, 本身是的導數 膨脹即， 至 膨脹. 想想給氣球充氣： 膨脹 （充氣）是當空氣從嘴裡吹進氣球時：原因。 直接後果是吸入空氣的氣球體積膨脹：效果。

將新空氣泵入氣球是導致氣球膨脹的動作。 同樣的推理也適用於貨幣：印鈔的行為本身就是通貨膨脹，其後果是價格上漲。 這種因果顛倒在 1950 年代後期已被稱為 語義混淆 由奧地利學派最傑出的經濟學家之一， 路德維希·馮·米塞斯:

“There is nowadays a very reprehensible, even dangerous, semantic confusion that makes it extremely difficult for the non-expert to grasp the true state of affairs. Inflation, as this term was always used everywhere and especially in this country, means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and the quantity of bank deposits subject to check. But people today use the term "inflation" to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages.”

因此，如果價格上漲的原因可能有很多，那麼通貨膨脹的原因就不會那麼多，因為它本身就是價格上漲的根源。 購買力的下降可能是由包括通貨膨脹在內的多種因素造成的，這在理智上要誠實得多。

金錢氾濫

So how has the European Central Bank behaved in terms of monetary issuance in recent years? The most effective figure to understand this is the ECB balance sheet, which shows the countervalue of assets held: those assets for which the Eurotower does not pay but acquires by creating new currency. As of October 2022, the ECB held almost EUR 9 trillion. Before the pandemic, at the beginning of 2019, it had around EUR 4.75 trillion. Frankfurt has almost doubled its money supply in three and a half years.

If we measure the amount of euros circulating in the form of banknotes and deposits - the figure defined as M1 - the number is slightly more reassuring, but not much: at the beginning of 2019 there were almost EUR 8.5 trillion in circulation, today there are 11.7 trillion. A growth of 37.6%.

Are we really sure, then, that this price growth - or as it is wrongly called by everyone, inflation - comes from nowhere? Or that it is just a consequence of the war in Ukraine? Given the amount of money supply injected into the market in the last three years, we should count ourselves lucky that the average price growth of goods and services is still stuck at 10%, due to the restrictions of the pandemic and the subsequent economic crisis we are entering.

是什麼 Bitcoin have to do with all this? Bitcoin has everything to do with it because it was born as an alternative to the economic catastrophes for which central banks continue to make themselves responsible. An alternative to the bubbles of unsustainable growth alternating with ruinous crises caused by the market manipulation of the interventionist utopia. Bitcoin cannot tell the world that “通貨膨脹不知從何而來，” 因為它的代碼是公開的，每個人都可以查看它的貨幣政策。 一項不會改變且無法被操縱的政策。 它是固定的，並將保持不變。 2.1 千萬億聰。 一個也沒有。

這是 Federico Rivi 的客座帖子。 所表達的意見完全是他們自己的，不一定反映 BTC Inc 或 Bitcoin 雜誌。

原始來源： Bitcoin 雜誌