通往超級之路bitcoin化：描述給我們帶來財務自由的“過渡代理人”

By Bitcoin 雜誌 - 2 年前 - 閱讀時間：22 分鐘
14 年 2022 月 11 日星期五下午 00:XNUMX

通往超級之路bitcoin化：描述給我們帶來財務自由的“過渡代理人”

These bottom-up “transition agents,” from private business to the freedom ladder, will be what drives us all to hyperbitcoin化。

本文為第二部分 在一系列 where we outline the views and predictions made by the Bitcoin community concerning the prospect of hyperbitcoinization. In our analysis, we highlight "transition agents": main players, groups of players or institutions that could accelerate the transition to a Bitcoin world. For each topic, we base our arguments on the references collected, and if possible, present data that aims to assess the probability of this outcome.

第一篇文章 described top-down scenarios initiated by institutional agents or governments whose influence is expected to trickle down to a wider audience. We identified monetary inflation and the rollout of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as probable scenarios initiated by central banks, while bitcoin hoarding, a rise in cross-border payments in bitcoin, bitcoin as a legal tender and even the advent of a hash war were identified as scenarios likely to induce government acceptance of Bitcoin. In view of the recent pronouncement by El Salvador, it appears that political agendas in South America are in a state of flux, in particular in countries with national elections scheduled for 2021 and 2022.

第二篇文章旨在了解企業、社區和個人實施的自下而上的舉措。

自下而上的情景

We identified several notable hyperbitcoinization scenarios that emanate from two large groups of actors. The first group represents private-sphere-led initiatives brought together by established firms and startups. The second group is composed of grassroots initiatives mostly impulsed by the Bitcoin community whose main purpose is to educate and help new users to be onboarded. The article begins with a discussion of the initiatives driven by these two groups before turning to an examination of emerging individual behaviors. In this article, we have followed the principle of 方法論的個人主義，在奧地利經濟學派中很有名，它包括解釋基於主觀個人行為和動機的大規模社會現象。

私人領域

Figure one depicts scenarios initiated by private actors that could — intentionally or unintentionally — set off a chain of events driving to hyperbitcoin化。

業務採用

自成立以來 Bitcoin has demonstrated that it offers a wide variety of benefits to users. Its value proposition as a safe haven for individuals is without question one of its key enduring 敘事. In August 2020, the world was surprised when MicroStrategy (MSTR), a NASDAQ-listed public technology company, announced that it was converting part of its cash reserves into bitcoin. Figure two depicts publicly-traded companies that reported owning bitcoin on their balance sheets or have converted a fraction of their cash reserves to bitcoin 隨著時間的推移。

迄今為止，我們可以將這一趨勢分為四個不同的領域：

Since the MicroStrategy announcement, many other companies have started to display an interest in Bitcoin, and we can expect to see more of these kinds of initiatives appearing over the coming months once decision-makers have weighed their choices.

If hyperbitcoinization comes to fruition, the revenues, costs, profits and valuations of all companies could be accounted for in bitcoin (Mimesis Capital and Burnett), and most valuable companies would be the ones holding the largest chunks of bitcoin 在他們的資產負債表上。

私人硬幣

當 Meta（前身為 Facebook）在 2019 年宣布將推出一種新的數字貨幣時， 行樂 （最初稱為“Libra”），此舉讓政府和金融機構都措手不及。 Diem 的穩定價值來自一籃子法定貨幣（美元、歐元、日元、英鎊和新加坡元），這將使任何 Facebook 用戶都可以像發送消息一樣輕鬆直觀地匯款。

儘管在許多方面都是一個吸引人的想法，但在某些方面提出了對信任一家以用戶數據為食的公司的擔憂。 一些人擔心吳庭艷會體現最糟糕的金錢和 數據隱私慣例. On the other hand, the launch of a private digital currency like diem may serve to familiarize large numbers of users with this emerging technology and thereby act as an on-ramp to broader Bitcoin adoption. As users get acquainted with digital currencies, they will develop an understanding of bitcoin as a scarce, censorship-resistant and decentralized digital money.

10 倍係數

Bitcoin 通常被認為是 更好的貨幣形式 因為與過去和現在的貨幣形式相比，它結合了可移植性、可分割性或可替代性方面的重大改進，同時在抵制審查和固定供應方面帶來了根本性的破壞。 尚未充分探索的一個方面是經濟的交易成本。

幾個世紀以來，人們一直在合作以最大限度地降低交易成本並更有效地生產他們無法單獨生產的東西。 這 公司理論 Ronald Coase 描述了內部成本和外部成本之間的關係。 

當企業的外部交易成本高於其內部交易成本時，企業就會成長。 例如，如果外部交易成本低於內部交易成本，公司將通過外包來縮小規模。

Applying this theory to the banking sector, we can project that the Bitcoin protocol is likely to capture a significant portion of the banking industry value proposition, and it is not hard to imagine that it could probably capture it entirely once the Bitcoin stack becomes a more tangible reality (see figure three). Over time, we can expect the value created on top of the Bitcoin stack to first capture the value of the financial industry, and then surpass it.

If the transaction costs incurred by Bitcoin users are lower than transactions enabled by conventional payments rails, demand will shift to the cheaper channel. Following Brexit, 簽證和萬事達卡 他們的交換費增加了近 1%，進一步擠壓了商家的底線。 這也發生在哥倫比亞，那裡 商人 停止使用借記卡和信用卡以避免過高的費用。

在其他地方，想要降低交換和刷卡費用的商家也可以考慮使用其他支付方式，例如閃電網絡作為 降低成本. 支付服務提供商可能會因客戶群萎縮給利潤率帶來壓力並最終降低其服務的競爭力而陷入死亡螺旋。 在銀行和支付行業合規成本不斷增加的背景下，這種情況的可能性不容忽視。

Transaction costs represent just one of several key aspects in the battle between established companies and Bitcoin-native services. In terms of remittances, in a recent research article, Bitrefill found that 方便快捷 對於某些客戶群來說，與成本同樣重要——如果不是更重要的話。 看看尼日利亞匯款的複雜過程，他們確定整個過程將從傳統的現金匯款通常需要幾天的時間減少到 20 到 30 分鐘。 即使 30 分鐘在當今金融界聽起來像是一段漫長而痛苦的經歷，但與現金匯款相比，它代表了十倍的收益。

Even if we could argue that Bitcoin doesn't exhibit yet the same number of transactions as large payment service providers, the payment infrastructure has grown at a rapid pace to the point of surpassing PayPal in terms of 交易量 2021 年，並提出一個可行的替代現有支付方式的方案（見圖四）。

This adoption is illustrated by the increasing number of Bitcoin transactions observed in Nigeria. According to Bernard Parah, CEO of Bitnob, the transaction volume observed in Nigeria is driven primarily by businesses and commerce. Domestic controls on capital imposed by the Nigerian government considerably limit the capacities of individuals and companies to trade internationally. Lacking access to U.S. dollars, a mechanical company wanting to buy spare parts from China, for example, would not be able to find a seller because no one would accept the naira as a form of payment. The use of Bitcoin — either directly or through a third party who can pay a prospective seller in yuan — creates a credible alternative means of payment that thereby opens access to the global marketplace for our Nigerian mechanical company.

這些十倍因素的例子突出了交易成本的作用，但這並不是要淡化生態系統初創公司也需要關注交易可靠性和整體用戶體驗，尤其是與託管服務不同的自託管服務及其由法規和合規性規定的入職流程。

更廣泛的公眾關注

Long seen as the ultimate safe haven in the crypto world, bitcoin is still finding its way as a medium of exchange.

雖然理論上， 鯨魚 和 原始流氓 (OGs) have had enough time to accumulate significant portions of bitcoin, the purchasing capacity of newcomers is limited by current price. The accumulation of satoshis is therefore the only option for those wishing to become familiar with this new asset class. Programmed regular purchases such as dollar-cost averaging (DCA) or loyalty programs offering cashbacks in satoshis are two options for earning bitcoin that are gaining in popularity.

The progressive integration of Bitcoin services into social networking and e-commerce platforms — or even games for which frequent microtransactions are familiar experience — could have the potential to onboard a large, digitally-savvy customer base in a short period of time.

Big tech companies already offer services to several hundred million or even billions of people worldwide (figure five). If any of these companies were to start accepting bitcoin as a means of payment, this would immediately trigger interest in the technology from a population that had little to no prior exposure to cryptocurrencies. Twitter’s announcement that it had developed a Lightning Network 小費功能 這將幫助人們順暢地匯款，這說明大型社交媒體公司可以如何利用其網絡的影響力。

E-commerce companies could also play a major role in spreading Bitcoin 使用。 As Tim Draper pointed out，多年來，消費者已經通過購買可在電子商務平台上兌換的代金券和禮品卡來間接使用加密貨幣購買產品，這是支付次數最多的（圖六）。

A 樂天 案例提供了一個類比，說明大型電子商務參與者通過其用戶群擴展新支付技術的速度有多快。 通過允許客戶使用信用卡支付，並逐漸在他們自己的平台之外進行支付，樂天逐漸成為日本最大的信用卡發行商之一。

金融世界

在過去十年中， Bitcoiners have regularly hypothesized how events initiated within the financial industry might accelerate the visibility of Bitcoin, such as the introduction of exchange-traded funds (交易所買賣基金) 在美國，或者制定更明確的法規如何吸引 數万億美元 from institutional investors. Even though more sophisticated financial products will likely assist in the wider adoption of Bitcoin and increase prices, actions taken by financial actors have not been particularly associated with the prospect of hyperbitcoin化。

However, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele's 公告 發出一個 Bitcoin bond, at the end of Bitcoin week in El Salvador, once again caught many observers by surprise. The Bitcoin bond — also called the Volcano bond — is a $1 billion tokenized bond that will be used to finance the construction of the first Bitcoin city and infrastructure in the Central American country. The Bitcoin bond offers 幾次中斷 與傳統債券市場相比：

The long-term reverberations for El Salvador are promising. Not only does this initiative provide for the construction of the geothermal energy infrastructure needed to power an entire new city, but it could also create a surplus of green energy that could be exported to neighboring countries. Most importantly, the Bitcoin strategy designed by the El Salvadoran government could attract the kind of global investment and knowledge workers that would help establish long-term prosperity in the region. By showing the rest of the world its openness to business and capital influx, El Salvador could replicate the success of the 1960年代的亞洲四小龍.

Bitcoin 社群

的成長 Bitcoin network is based in a strong community committed to the idea of a P2P electronic cash system. Orphaned since the disappearance of its creator Satoshi Nakamoto, the Bitcoin ecosystem continues to play a major role in spreading his ideas. By supporting technological developments and their diffusion, the Bitcoin community undergirds the process of technological familiarization within the public and private spheres addressed in this series of articles.

這個雜牌的國際愛好者社區綽號“網絡大黃蜂” encompasses miners, node holders, investors, speculators, analysts, entrepreneurs, journalists, influencers, OSS contributors and developers who devote considerable time and energy to educate new users and contribute, defend and support Bitcoin.

The actors described in the following section are representative of this community of cyber hornets, and contribute to the global dissemination of Bitcoin 技術。

影響者

Influencers represent a group of thinkers, investors and entrepreneurs who have significant media coverage and habitually voice their opinions on Bitcoin. Bitcoin detractors regularly criticize the technology on both social and traditional media to 失信 influencers. Others, like Michael Saylor and Jack Dorsey, who understood the impact Bitcoin will have on their companies, frequently praise its invention and are joined in their praise by global 商界領袖. It may be difficult to quantify the long-term effects that influencers have on uptake of Bitcoin technologies, but debates around these new technologies help normalize them in the eyes and ears of the wider public.

然而，在短期內，這種促銷也可能對公眾的看法產生負面影響，正如我們在埃隆馬斯克的社交媒體信息不一致之後所看到的那樣。 經過一系列 鳴叫 當技術企業家針對工作量證明的能源消耗模式時，所經歷的資產價格 強烈的變化 （圖五）。

NGU技術愛好者

“Number go up” or “NGU,” is by far one of the most influential explanatory factors in Bitcoin adoption. In this scenario, newcomers drive the price of bitcoin up, while the increasing asset price attracts a new wave of investors, HODLers 和好奇。 如圖 XNUMX 所示，從一開始就持續的價格上漲會產生“害怕錯過”（FOMO），即害怕不被包括在其他人正在經歷的事情中。

“NGU 技術”是一種高效、清晰和自我維持的營銷信息。 在圖 2018 中，加密錢包應用程序下載數量的演變恰逢 2020 年和 XNUMX 年的牛市，沒有理由相信這種關係在未來會發生變化。

Most hyperbitcoinization scenarios are based on the mass adoption of Bitcoin by several types of players — individuals, businesses, cities and eventually countries — in a sequential way, with this mass adoption ultimately driving up the price of bitcoin.

NGU 技術敘述得到了幾種基於固定產量的價格模型的支持，在“S2F“和”延長周期和減少回報，”或基於能源消耗，在“Bitcoin 能源價值.'' Alternatively, actors such as Mimesis Capital propose an approach that consists of evaluating the asset price relative to the possible total market share that could be captured as shown in the M2 money and global wealth examples (figure seven).

所有這些模型都可能通過暗示未來的價格上漲和強化 NGU 技術的信息來影響公眾的認知。

匿名教育者

Since the early years of Bitcoin, individuals initiating friends and family into the cryptocurrency world have been a key part of Bitcoin culture. Word of mouth led people to discover this open, decentralized, borderless and censorship-resistant currency. Over time, personal accounts have continued to grow as more structured initiatives have appeared alongside to evangelize those with inquiring minds.

Bitcoin Beach community in El Salvador is one of the more prominent examples of this process. Although the community remained under the radar for some time, it was instrumental in El Salvador’s decision to adopt bitcoin as legal tender, thereby positioning the country at the forefront of financial innovation.

靈感 Bitcoin Beach, other initiatives have tried to replicate its enthusiasm in other communities. In 塞內加爾, Bitcoin Developers Academy is aiming to train university students in the development of Bitcoin and Lightning Network applications by adapting the content and values of other Bitcoin呃。

The notion of adaptation is crucial. The Bitcoin narrative is shaped by individuals imbued with predominantly Western values and for whom notions of individual freedom, privacy and self-sovereignty resonate. In many societies, 金錢被視為加強群體內社會關係的一種機制. In order to onboard new segments of the populations of Africa or Latin America, it is vital that the Bitcoin narrative be adapted to resonate with locals. Narratives centered around Bitcoin as a tool of individual freedom or means of privacy protection have done little to inspire imaginations in Eastern Africa. Instead, newcomers have grafted an alternative set of values onto Bitcoin that connect with the sense of community belonging encapsulated by the concept of Ubuntu，這通常被翻譯為“我是因為我們是”。

If new users embrace the technology, their expectations will differ from those held by earlier adopters, and in response, the Bitcoin narrative, functionality and services will necessarily evolve. By introducing 多重簽名共享託管 在其 Bitcoin beach wallet, Galoy gives another example of a necessary adjustment of the narrative in Central America, 描述為:

“...a multi signature solution where the keys for the funds in cold storage are held by established members of the local community. This model reduces reliance on centralized companies outside of the community while also reducing friction of onboarding members to the network.”

Adaptation of functions and educational content conveyed by Bitcoin in response to uptake in new cultural contexts will be a source of significant innovation and enrichment for the community as a whole.

展望

Bitcoin As A Feedback Loop

了解 Bitcoin is often a personal, intrinsically-motivated journey that encourages inquiry into a range of 主題 as varied as the monetary system, technology, economy and philosophy. In this sense, Bitcoin plays the role of a virtual tutor who cultivates a thirst for knowledge in its followers. Once convinced of the superiority of Bitcoin over alternative currencies, individuals develop behaviors that reflect the nature of this invention.

“你不改變 Bitcoin，但 Bitcoin changes you.”

- Max Keizer

供應有限 Bitcoin has encouraged hoarding behaviors from several types of actors. Prior to 2016, bitcoin traded below $1,000 and therefore acquiring multiple coins was considered an attainable goal for many people in the developed world.

Fast forward to 2021, when the price of bitcoin has appreciated considerably, such that it has become onerous for newcomers to acquire an entire bitcoin. The result is that newcomers are incentivized to buy smaller fractions of bitcoin. The accumulation of satoshis or “stacking sats” is the most concrete example of this practice that has pushed an entire generation of newcomers to acquire bitcoin in a programmatic and methodical way, as demonstrated by the success of companies proposing DCA services or cashback rewards.

One of the consequences of newcomers’ propensity to maximize the share of bitcoin in their asset portfolios — and hence, savings — is that if enough newcomers share this strategy, their cumulative efforts could propel the price of bitcoin significantly higher and eventually kick-off hyperbitcoin化。

For each new daily expense, Bitcoiners are faced with a choice of whether or not to spend. By spending, they deprive themselves of the possibility of buying more Bitcoins, while if they refrain from spending the money saved can be converted into satoshis. This behavior clearly indicates a preference for future reward over immediate superficial spending. In this way, Bitcoin has transformed people from consumers into savers and can be seen as a reference of value anchored in the mind of consumers in a way that supports prudence.

By privileging the essential over the superficial, the durable over the fragile, and the fruitful over the futile, Bitcoin stands poised to help our society respond to the economic, environmental and social crises we are facing. For the first time, the introduction of a currency whose existence is linked directly to a conversion of energy will allow us to systematically integrate energy not only into our currency, but into our economic model.

This sends a strong signal given that Bitcoin is a social movement under expansion. By being the first to incorporate energy into the economic system, Bitcoin could act as a feedback loop that puts an end to the superficial consumerist models permitted and sustained by fiat monetary systems.

為繁榮而射擊

大規模 Bitcoin adoption may seem like a remote possibility for some, but it has nevertheless become a full-fledged financial tool for an eclectic crowd. The West tends to view the countries from the 全球南方 as lagging in terms of the latest technological innovations, but following a series of interviews, the authors of this article have come to believe that where Bitcoin is concerned, the level of technological sophistication surpasses that found in many developed countries.

 In the table above, case one depicts how Bitcoin adoption by low-income families resolves challenges that may be difficult for Western readers to understand. Yusuf Nessary, co-founder of the 建於 Bitcoin 粉底遮瑕, 回憶說，這些家庭——有時與主要城市中心隔絕——必須長途跋涉才能接收家庭成員發送的現金匯款。 到最近的城鎮旅行不僅會產生大量費用，而且還意味著要為每天生活的家庭放棄一天的工資。 將數字支付直接引入手機可以通過消除前往最近的銀行或 ATM 的費用來顯著改善用戶的生活。

Cases two and three depict scenarios where individuals and businesses have embraced Bitcoin as a payment method in order to sell their products or services more smoothly and connect to the global economy (#paymeinbitcoin). In an interview with these authors, Bitcoin developer Fodé Diop anticipated that if the digital workforce in Senegal starts selling their services to foreign companies, capital injected into the country will reap benefits not only at the individual level, but also country-wide.

This analysis was shared by Nigerian Bitnob CEO Bernard Parah, who considers that bringing a viable payment solution in Nigeria would solve 50% of the problem and could ultimately help flatten the world, as he said in his own interview with these authors. Diop likewise 預言 Bitcoin could disrupt or even put an end to the brain drain that has impacted emerging economies.

與歐洲老齡化社會相比，非洲國家的人口主要由 25 歲以下的青年組成，並且呈現出動態的人口增長（圖 XNUMX）。 如果這些年輕人繼續面臨高失業率和糟糕的未來前景，社會和經濟形勢可能會變得爆炸性——尤其是在年輕人比例最高的國家。

上面概述的案例強調了信任最小化資金成為國內和國際貿易推動者的潛力，並幫助 人類社會規模 因為它具有普遍的互操作性，不能貶值或沒收，並且可以繞過傳統的、基於信任的銀行系統的限制。

自由階梯

Bitcoin can be seen as a polymorphic tool that adapts to the needs of each new user. Bitcoin as a privacy tool or means of self-sovereignty has been its predominant narrative, however self-sovereign identity (SSI) is a concept of the global “rich” that stands outside the reach of the 800 million people who do not have 通電、電話或互聯網連接（圖九）。

“在西方世界行得通的東西不會在非洲停留！ 我們需要重塑敘事或展示不同的敘事。” 

——福德·迪奧普

It should also be noted that the introduction of Bitcoin alone is not enough to lift the global population out of extreme poverty. Donations and development programs need to be coordinated with local agents of change, like those being carried out by the Built With Bitcoin 基礎。

基於“主權階梯”，後來由 安妮塔·波什（Anita Posch）, below we depict the relationship between the potential threats and living conditions faced by individuals, groups of people and society, with the freedom that stands to be ushered in by Bitcoin. We generalized this concept beyond individual sovereignty because, as mentioned above, this concept still remains abstract to a large part of the population.

This “freedom ladder” illustrates how Bitcoin is poised to bring about a range of solutions that will make it possible to overcome numerous threats on an incremental basis. Although the level of threat faced by an individual living under the oppression of an authoritarian regime or for a group of migrants fleeing an economy ruined by inflation differs, Bitcoin provides solutions for a variety of situations.

The bottom of the ladder includes infrastructural requirements, as these basic needs should be addressed prior to considering access to Bitcoin.

有一些極端情況可能會迫使某些人 人群 直接跳到自由階梯的最高層，以保護自己免受突然和暴力的威脅。 然而，對於一個用戶或一群人來說，要了解自我監管或匿名交易所涉及的內容，通常需要在更長的時間內經歷外部威脅，有時是逐漸增加的，就像一個可以更好地承受的免疫系統一樣暴露於外部攻擊。

結論

Bitcoin is a unique invention in many ways. Unlike the other great inventions of the modern era such as electricity, the computer or the internet, whose early adoption was initiated by either private companies or public institutions, Bitcoin has always targeted individuals: the marginalized and misfits of the system.

Bitcoin adoption is quiet and goes almost unnoticed by the mainstream agents of influence. Designed to scale by minimizing trust and eliminating dependency on third parties, it is difficult to obtain reliable aggregate data on the extent of Bitcoin adoption by a given country or a segment of the population. The permanent evolution of the protocol — of which 直根 是最新的例子——強化了這一隱私和可擴展性目標，並將繼續挑戰定量分析的嘗試。

Many questions remain unanswered about hyperbitcoinization and its micro- and macroeconomic consequences. This article attempted to identify emerging scenarios that may lead to hyperbitcoinization. However, it remains difficult to predict how these different scenarios will relate to one another, and at what speed they or any other possible scenarios may occur.

Many challenges remain to be solved before we see a broader adoption and, as Ray Youssef, CEO of Paxful, stated in an interview with these authors, it is crucial to relentlessly educate users, improve their experience and above all adapt the narrative to make Bitcoin 更具包容性。

This article sought to identify and categorize initiatives that could lead to hyperbitcoinization, thereby transmuting expectations into reality. Although the mere prospect of hyperbitcoinization has raised immense hopes for many people, at this time we are still far from realizing the transformative power of Bitcoin 在我們的生活中。

“我們傾向於高估一項技術的短期影響，而低估長期影響。” 

- 阿馬拉定律

In view of the dynamism of communities developing islands of resilience across the world, it is not hard to imagine how the voluntary actors of hyperbitcoinization will likely arise from grassroots initiatives, while governments and central banks — through their binding interventions — will unwittingly become its involuntary actors. This hypothesis resonates with the original vision of Bitcoin that it still carries to this day: a P2P electronic cash system.

我們想表達我們的感謝 安妮塔·波什（Anita Posch），“Anita Posch Show”播客主持人； 優素福·奈薩里, co-founder and director of the Built With Bitcoin 基礎; 雷·優素福，Paxful 首席執行官； FodéDiop, founder at Bitcoin Developers Academy; 伯納德·帕拉，Bitnob 首席執行官； 蓋爾·桑切斯·史密斯，“Bitcoin Lo Cambia Todo”; and 加洛伊的團隊在我們的採訪中與我們分享了寶貴的見解； 並感謝 Jennifer McCain 審查整體可讀性。

參考

這是 Fulgur Ventures 的客座帖子。 所表達的意見完全是他們自己的，不一定反映 BTC, Inc. 或 Bitcoin 雜誌.

原始來源： Bitcoin 雜誌