By Bitcoin Iris - 3 mhí ó shin - Am Léitheoireachta: 6 nóiméad
An Bitcoin Leathadh: An Féidir a bhFéadfadh an tAm Seo A Bheith Éagsúil
An ceathrú Bitcoin halving is almost upon us, and this one has the potential for some very interesting surprises. This halving marks the reduction of the Bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 BTC every block to 3.125 BTC per block. These supply reductions occur every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, as part of Bitcoin’s gradual, disinflationary approach to its final capped supply in circulation.
Is ionann an soláthar críochta de 21 milliún bonn, mura bhfuil an, foundational characteristic of Bitcoin. This predictability of supply and inflation rate has been at the heart of what has driven demand and belief in bitcoin as a superior form of money. The regular supply halving is the mechanism by which that finite supply is ultimately enacted.
The halvings over time are the driver behind one of the most fundamental shifts of Bitcoin incentives in the long term: the move from miners being funded by newly issued coins from the coinbase subsidy — the block reward — to being funded dominantly by the transaction fee revenue from users moving bitcoin ar slabhra.
Mar a dúirt Satoshi i Roinn 6 (Dreasachtaí) den pháipéar bán:
“Is féidir an dreasacht a mhaoiniú freisin le táillí idirbhirt. Má tá luach aschuir idirbhirt níos lú ná a luach ionchuir, is é an difríocht táille idirbhirt a chuirtear le luach dreasachta an bhloc ina bhfuil an t-idirbheart. Nuair a bheidh líon réamhshocraithe monaí curtha i gcúrsaíocht, féadfaidh an dreasacht aistriú go hiomlán chuig táillí idirbhirt agus a bheith saor ó bhoilsciú.”
Historically the halving has correlated with a massive appreciation in the price of bitcoin, offsetting the impact of the miners’ subsidy being cut in half. Miners’ bills are paid in fiat, meaning that if the price of bitcoin appreciates, resulting in a larger income in dollar terms for the lower amount of bitcoin earned per block, the negative impact on mining operation is cushioned.
In light of the last market cycle, with not even a 4x appreciation from the prior all time high, the degree to which price appreciation will cushion miners from the effects of the halving is an assumption that might not consistently hold true. This coming halving, the inflation rate of bitcoin will drop for the first time below 1%. If the next market cycle plays out similarly to the previous one, with much lower upwards movement than seen historically, this halving could have a materially negative impact on existing miners.
This makes the fee revenue miners can collect from transactions more important than ever, and it will continue to become more central to their sustainability from a business perspective as block height increases and successive halvings occur. Either fee revenue has to increase, or the price needs to appreciate at a minimum by 2x each halving in order to make up for the decrease in subsidy revenue. As bullish as most Bitcoiners can be, the notion that a doubling in price is guaranteed to happen every four years, in perpetuity, is a dubious assumption at best.
Is breá leo nó is fuath leo, tá comharthaí BRC-20 agus Inscríbhinní tar éis dinimic iomlán an mhempool a aistriú, ag brú táillí ó áit éigin sa pháirc liathróid de 0.1-0.2 BTC in aghaidh an bhloc sula raibh siad ann, go dtí an meán beagán so-ghalaithe de 1-2 BTC. go déanach - go rialta spiking i bhfad níos mó ná sin.
An Fachtóir Nua An Uair Seo
Ordinals present a very new incentive dynamic to the halving this go around that was not present at any prior halving in Bitcoin’s history. Rare sats. At the heart of Ordinals Theory is that satoshis from specific blocks can be tracked and “owned” based on its arbitrary interpretation of the transaction history of the blockchain, based on assuming specific amounts sent to specific outputs “send that sat” there. The other aspect of the theory is assigning rarity values to specific sats. Each block has a coinbase, thus producing an ordinal. But each block is different in importance to the scheme. Each normal block produces an “uncommon” sat, the first block of each difficulty adjustment produces a “rare” sat, and the first block of each halving cycle produces an “epic” sat.
This halving will be the first one since the widespread adoption of Ordinal Theory by a subset of Bitcoin users. There has never been the production of an “epic” sat while there was material market demand for it from a large and developed ecosystem. The market demand for that specific sat could wind up being valued at absurd multiples of what the coinbase reward itself is valued at in terms of just fungible satoshis.
The fact that a large market segment in the Bitcoin space would value that single coinbase drastically higher than any other creates an incentive for miners to fight over it by reorganizing the blockchain immediately after the halving. The only time such a thing has happened in history was during the very first halving, when the block reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Some miners continued trying to mine blocks rewarding 50 BTC in the coinbase after the supply cut, and gave up shortly after when the rest of the network ignored their efforts. This time around, the incentive to reorg isn’t based around ignoring the consensus rules and hoping people come along to your side, it's fighting over who is allowed to mine a completely valid block because of the value collectors will ascribe to that single coinbase.
Níl aon ráthaíochtaí ann go dtarlóidh a leithéid de atheagrú i ndáiríre, ach tá dreasacht airgeadais an-mhór ann do mhianadóirí déanamh amhlaidh. Má tharlaíonn sé, braitheann an fad a rachaidh sé ar aghaidh i ndeireadh na dála ar cé chomh mór is a d’fhéadfadh an “eipiciúil” sin a bheith ar an margadh chun íoc as an ioncam caillte ó throid thar bhloc amháin seachas dul chun cinn an tslabhra.
Each halving in Bitcoin’s history has been a pivotal event people watch, but this go around it has the potential to be much more interesting than past halvings.
Conas a d'fhéadfadh Cath Sath Epic Imirt Amach
Tá roinnt bealaí a d'fhéadfadh sé seo a imirt amach i mo thuairim. Is é an bealach chéad agus is soiléire nach dtarlaíonn aon rud. Ar chúis ar bith, ní bhreithníonn mianadóirí gur fiú an deischostas a bhaineann le fuinneamh a chur amú ag atheagrú an bhlocchain agus an t-airgead a d’fhéadfaidís a dhéanamh trí mhianadóireacht a dhéanamh ar an gcéad bhloc eile a mheas ó luach margaidh féideartha an chéad “eipiciúil” a luadh ó tharla glacadh Ordinals. . Mura gceapann mianadóirí gur fiú an phréimh bhreise is féidir leis an ngnáthnós a fháil chun bogadh ar aghaidh go dtí an chéad bhloc eile, ní dhéanfaidh siad é.
Tá an chéad fhéidearthacht eile mar thoradh ar scálaí nuanced an gheilleagair. Samhlaigh gur féidir le hoibríocht mhianadóireachta ar scála níos mó dul i mbaol níos mó “bloic caillte” a bheith páirteach i gcomhrac reorg thar an “eipiciúil”. Is féidir leis an mianadóir níos mó sin le níos mó caipitil a chur ar an mbord riosca níos mó a ghlacadh. Sa chás seo, d'fhéadfadh go bhfeicfimid cúpla iarracht atheagraithe ó mhianadóirí móra le hoibríochtaí níos lú nach fiú a bheith ag iarraidh, agus go bunúsach an cur isteach íosta. Bheadh sé seo le himirt ag na mianadóirí má cheapann mianadóirí go bhfuil roinnt préimhe ann gur féidir leo a fháil don ghnáthleibhéal, ach nach préimh ollmhór é ar fiú cur isteach go mór ar an líonra.
Is é an cás deireanach ná dá bhforbródh margadh tairiscint a dhéanamh don “eipiciúil” a shuífeadh roimh an am, agus is féidir le mianadóirí pictiúr soiléir a bheith acu go bhfuil luach ollmhór ar an ordachán os cionn luach margaidh an fhuaiscigh féin. Sa chás seo, féadfaidh mianadóirí troid thar an bloc sin ar feadh tréimhse fada ama. Is í an loighic taobh thiar de gan an blockchain a atheagrú ná go bhfuil airgead á chailleadh agat, ní hamháin go bhfuil tú ag dul i muinín an luach saothair a bhaineann le mianadóireacht a dhéanamh ar an gcéad bhloc eile, ach tá tú ag leanúint ar aghaidh ag tabhú an chostais a bhaineann le do chuid oibríochtaí mianadóireachta a reáchtáil. I gcás ina bhfuil an margadh ag cur in iúl go poiblí cé chomh mór is atá an “eipiciúil” shuigh, tá tuairim an-soiléir ag mianadóirí cé chomh fada agus is féidir leo éirí as bogadh go dtí an chéad bhloc eile agus glanbhrabús a thabhairt chun críche fós tríd an iar-leathnú a bhaint amach. luach saothair coinbase leis an orduimhir. Sa chás seo d'fhéadfadh go gcuirfí isteach go mór ar an líonra go dtí go dtosóidh mianadóirí ag druidim le caillteanas ráthaithe fiú má éiríonn leo mianadóireacht a dhéanamh ar an mbloc seo gan é a atheagrú.
Is cuma cén bealach a n-imríonn rudaí amach, beidh sé seo ina fhachtóir le breithniú ar gach leath díobh amach anseo mura n-éagann an t-éileamh agus an margadh le haghaidh ordainéil.
Foinse bunaidh: Bitcoin Magazine