By Bitcoin Časopis - prije 3 mjeseca - Vrijeme čitanja: 9 minute
GBTC odljevi: predviđanje ukupnog iznosa Bitcoin Pritisak na prodaju i utjecaj na tržište
Sljedeća je heuristička analiza odljeva GBTC-a i nema namjeru da bude striktno matematička, već služi kao alat za pomoć ljudima da razumiju trenutno stanje prodaje GBTC-a s visoke razine i za procjenu opsega budućih odljeva koji bi mogli pojaviti se.
Broj Idi dolje
January 25, 2024 – Since Wall Street came to Bitcoin pod okriljem Spot ETF approval, the market has been met with relentless selling from the largest pool of bitcoin in the world: the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) which held more than 630,000 bitcoin at its peak. After conversion from a closed-end fund to a Spot ETF, GBTC’s treasury (3% of all 21 million bitcoin) has bled more than $4 billion during the first 9 days of ETF trading, while other ETF participants have seen inflows of approximately $5.2 billion over that same period. The result – $824 million in net inflows – is somewhat surprising given the sharply negative price action since the SEC lent its stamp of approval.
Izvor: James Seffart, @JSefyyIn trying to forecast the near-term price impact of Spot Bitcoin Obveznički fondovi, we must first understand for koliko dugo i koja veličina GBTC odljevi će se nastaviti. U nastavku je pregled uzroka odljeva GBTC-a, tko su prodavači, njihove procijenjene relativne zalihe i koliko dugo možemo očekivati da će odljevi trajati. U konačnici, ovi projicirani odljevi, unatoč tome što su nedvojbeno veliki, kontraintuitivno su iznimno poput bika za bitcoin in the medium-term despite the downside volatility that we have all experienced (and perhaps most did not expect) post ETF-approval.
GBTC mamurluk: plaćanje za to
First, some housekeeping on GBTC. It is now plainly clear just how important of a catalyst the GBTC arbitrage trade was in fomenting the 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull run. The GBTC premium was the rocket fuel driving the market higher, allowing market participants (3AC, Babel, Celsius, Blockfi, Voyager etc.) to acquire shares at net asset value, all the while marking their book value up to include the premium. Essentially, the premium drove demand for creation of GBTC shares, which in turn drove bidding for spot bitcoin. It was basically risk free…
Iako je premija podigla tržište naviše tijekom 2020+ i milijarde dolara su se slile da bi se uhvatila GBTC premija, priča se brzo pokvarila. Kako je GBTC golden goose presušio, a Trust počeo trgovati ispod NAV-a u veljači 2021., uslijedio je niz likvidacija. GBTC diskont je u biti srušio bilancu cijele industrije.
Sparked by the implosion of Terra Luna in May 2022, cascading liquidations of GBTC shares by parties like 3AC and Babel (the so-called “crypto contagion”) ensued, pushing the GBTC discount down even further. Since then, GBTC has been an albatross around the neck of bitcoin, and continues to be, as the bankruptcy estates of those hung out to dry on the GBTC “risk free” trade are still liquidating their GBTC shares to this day. Of the aforementioned victims of the “risk free” trade and its collateral damage, the FTX estate (the largest of those parties) konačno liquidated 20,000 BTC across the first 8 days of Spot Bitcoin ETF trading in order to pay back its creditors.
It is also important to note the role of the steep GBTC discount relative to NAV and its impact on spot bitcoin demand. The discount incentivized investors to go long GBTC and short BTC, collecting a BTC-denominated return as GBTC crept back up toward NAV. This dynamic further siphoned spot bitcoin demand away – a toxic combination that has further plagued the market until the GBTC discount recently returned to near-neutral post ETF approval.
Izvor: ycharts.comUz sve to rečeno, postoje znatne količine stečajne mase koje još uvijek drže GBTC i nastavit će se likvidirati iz zaliha od 600,000 512,000 BTC koje je Grayscale posjedovao (26 2024 BTC od XNUMX. siječnja XNUMX.). Slijedi pokušaj isticanja različitih segmenata dioničara GBTC-a, a zatim tumačenja dodatnih odljeva koje možemo vidjeti u skladu s financijskom strategijom za svaki segment.
Optimalna strategija za različite segmente vlasnika GBTC-a
Simply put, the question is: of the ~600,000 Bitcoin that were in the trust, how many of them are likely to exit GBTC in total? Subsequently, of those outflows, how many are going to rotate back into a Bitcoin product, or Bitcoin itself, thus largely negating the selling pressure? This is where it gets tricky, and knowing who owns GBTC shares, and what their incentives are, is important.
The two key aspects driving GBTC outflows are as follows: fee structure (1.5% annual fee) and idiosyncratic selling depending on each shareholder's unique financial circumstance (cost basis, tax incentives, bankruptcy etc.).
Stečajne mase
Procijenjeno vlasništvo: 15% (89.5 milijuna dionica | 77,000 XNUMX BTC)
Od 22. siječnja 2024. imanje FTX-a likvidiralo je svoj cjelokupni GBTC posjed od 22 milijuna dionica (~20,000 36 BTC). Druge strane u stečaju, uključujući sestrinsku tvrtku GBTC-a Genesis Global (32,000 milijuna dionica / ~31 28,000 BTC) i dodatni (nejavno identificiran) entitet drže približno XNUMX milijun dionica (~XNUMX XNUMX BTC).
Da ponovimo: stečajne mase držale su približno 15.5% dionica GBTC-a (90 milijuna dionica / ~80,000 22 BTC), i vjerojatno će većina ili sve te dionice biti prodane čim to zakonski bude moguće kako bi se isplatili vjerovnici ovih nekretnina. FTX imanje je već prodalo 20,000 milijuna dionica (~22 BTC), dok nije jasno jesu li Genesis i druga strana prodali svoj udio. Uzimajući sve ovo zajedno, vjerojatno je da je značajan dio stečajnih prodaja već probavilo tržište potpomognuto ne malim dijelom FTX-om koji je skinuo flaster 2024. siječnja XNUMX.
Jedna bora koju treba dodati stečajnim prodajama: one vjerojatno neće biti glatke ili razvučene, već više paušalne kao u slučaju FTX-a. Suprotno tome, druge vrste dioničara vjerojatno će napustiti svoje pozicije na dugotrajniji način, umjesto da likvidiraju svoje udjele jednim potezom. Nakon što se riješe pravne zastoje, vrlo je vjerojatno da će se prodati 100% udjela stečajne mase.
Posredovanje u maloprodaji i mirovinski računi
Procijenjeno vlasništvo: 50% (286.5 milijuna dionica | 255,000 XNUMX BTC)
Next up, retail brokerage account shareholders. GBTC, as one of the first passive products available for retail investors when it launched in 2013, has a massive retail contingency. In my estimation, retail investors hold approximately 50% of GBTC shares (286m shares / ~255,000 bitcoin). This is the trickiest tranche of shares to project in terms of their optimal path forward because their decision to sell or not will depend upon the price of bitcoin, which then dictates the tax status for each share purchase.
Na primjer, ako je cijena bitcoin rises, a greater proportion of retail shares will be in-profit, meaning if they rotate out of GBTC, they will incur a taxable event in the form of capital gains, thus they will likely stay put. However, the inverse is true as well. If the price of bitcoin continues to fall, more GBTC investors will not incur a taxable event, and thus will be incentivized to exit. This potential feedback loop marginally increases the pool of sellers that can exit without a tax penalty. Given GBTC’s unique availability to those early to bitcoin (therefore likely in profit), it is likely that most retail investors will stay put. To put a number on it, it is feasible that 25% retail brokerage accounts will sell, but this is subject to change depending upon bitcoin price action (as noted above).
Sljedeći su mali ulagači sa statusom oslobođenja od poreza koji su raspoređivali putem IRA (mirovinskih računa). Ovi su dioničari iznimno osjetljivi na strukturu naknada i mogu prodavati bez oporezivog događaja s obzirom na njihov IRA status. Uz nevjerojatnih 1.5% GBTC-ove godišnje naknade (šest puta više od GBTC-ovih konkurenata), sasvim je sigurno da će značajan dio ovog segmenta napustiti GBTC u korist drugih spot ETF-ova. Vjerojatno je da će ~75% ovih dioničara izaći, dok će mnogi ostati zbog apatije ili nerazumijevanja GBTC-ove strukture naknada u odnosu na druge proizvode (ili jednostavno cijene likvidnost koju GBTC nudi u odnosu na druge ETF proizvode).
On the bright side for spot bitcoin demand from retirement accounts, these GBTC outflows will likely be met with inflows into other Spot ETF products, as they will likely just rotate rather than exiting bitcoin u gotovinu.
Institucionalni dioničari
Procijenjeno vlasništvo: 35% (200,000,000 dionica | 180,000 BTC)
And finally, we have the institutions, which account for approximately 180,000 bitcoin. These players include FirTree and Saba Capital, as well as hedge funds that wanted to arbitrage the GBTC discount and spot bitcoin price discrepancy. This was done by going long GBTC and short bitcoin in order to have net neutral bitcoin positioning and capture GBTC’s return to NAV.
Kao upozorenje, ova tranša dioničara je neprozirna i teško ju je predvidjeti, i Također acts as a bellwether for bitcoin demand from TradFi. For those with GBTC exposure purely for the aforementioned arbitrage trade, we can assume they will not return to purchase bitcoin through any other mechanism. We estimate investors of this type to make up 25% of all GBTC shares (143m shares / ~130,000 BTC). This is by no means certain, but it would reason that greater than 50% of TradFi will exit to cash without returning to a bitcoin product or physical bitcoin.
Za Bitcoin-native funds and Bitcoin whales (~5% of total shares), it is likely that their sold GBTC shares will be recycled into bitcoin, resulting in a net-flat impact on bitcoin price. For crypto-native investors (~5% of total shares), they will likely exit GBTC into cash and other crypto assets (not bitcoin). Combined, these two cohorts (57m shares / ~50,000 BTC) will have a net neutral to slightly negative impact on bitcoin price given their relative rotations to cash and bitcoin.
Total GBTC Outflows & Net Bitcoin Utjecaj
Da budemo jasni, postoji velika količina neizvjesnosti u ovim projekcijama, ali ovo je okvirna procjena ukupnog otkupnog krajolika s obzirom na spomenutu dinamiku između stečajnih masa, maloprodajnih brokerskih računa, mirovinskih računa i institucionalnih ulagača.
Analiza predviđenih odljeva:
250,000 to 350,000 BTC total projected GBTC outflows100,000 to 150,000 BTC expected to leave the trust and be converted into cash150,000 to 200,000 BTC in GBTC outflows rotating into other trusts or products250,000 to 350,000 bitcoin will remain in GBTC100,000 to 150,000 net-BTC selling pressureUKUPNO Očekivani odljevi povezani s GBTC-om koji rezultiraju pritiskom prodaje neto-BTC-a: 100,000 150,000 do XNUMX XNUMX BTC
Od 26. siječnja 2024 približno 115,000 bitcoin have left GBTC. Given Alameda’s recorded sale (20,000 bitcoin), we estimate that of the other ~95,000 bitcoin, half have rotated into cash, and half have rotated into bitcoin ili drugih bitcoin products. This implies net-neutral market impact from GBTC outflows.
Procijenjeni odljevi koji će se tek dogoditi:
Bankruptcy Estates: 55,000Retail Brokerage Accounts: 65,000 - 75,000 BTCRetirement Accounts: 10,000 - 12,250 BTCInstitutional Investors: 35,000 - 40,000 BTCTOTAL Estimated Outflows To Come: ~135,000 - 230,000 BTC
Napomena: kao što je prethodno rečeno, ove su procjene rezultat heurističke analize i ne bi se trebale tumačiti kao financijski savjeti i jednostavno im je cilj informirati čitatelja o tome kakav je ukupni odljev svibanj izgledati kao. Osim toga, ove procjene su u skladu s tržišnim uvjetima.
Postupno, pa iznenada: Zbogom medvjedima
In summary, we estimate that the market has already stomached approximately 30-45% of all projected GBTC outflows (115,000 BTC of 250,000-300,000 BTC projected total outflows) and that the remaining 55-70% of expected outflows will follow in short order over the next 20-30 trading days. All in, 150,000 - 200,000 BTC in net selling pressure may result from GBTC sales given that the significant proportion of GBTC outflows will either rotate into other Spot ETF products, or into cold storage bitcoin.
We are through the brunt of the pain from Barry Silbert’s GBTC gauntlet and that is reason to celebrate. The market will be much better off on the other side: GBTC will have finally relinquished its stranglehold over bitcoin markets, and without the specter of the discount or future firesales hanging over the market, bitcoin will be much less encumbered when it does arise. While it will take time to digest the rest of the GBTC outflows, and there will likely be a long tail of people exiting their position (mentioned previously), bitcoin will have plenty of room to run when the Spot ETFs settle into a groove.
Oh, jesam li spomenuo da dolazi prepolovljenje? Ali to je priča za drugi put.
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Izvorni izvor: Bitcoin Časopis