By Bitcoin Magazine - 3 months ago - Reading Time: 6 minutes
Jounal Bitcoin Halving: Poukisa tan sa a ta ka diferan
Katriyèm lan Bitcoin halving is almost upon us, and this one has the potential for some very interesting surprises. This halving marks the reduction of the Bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 BTC every block to 3.125 BTC per block. These supply reductions occur every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, as part of Bitcoin’s gradual, disinflationary approach to its final capped supply in circulation.
Ekipman pou fini de 21 milyon pyès monnen se yon, si se pa sa nan, foundational characteristic of Bitcoin. This predictability of supply and inflation rate has been at the heart of what has driven demand and belief in bitcoin as a superior form of money. The regular supply halving is the mechanism by which that finite supply is ultimately enacted.
The halvings over time are the driver behind one of the most fundamental shifts of Bitcoin incentives in the long term: the move from miners being funded by newly issued coins from the coinbase subsidy — the block reward — to being funded dominantly by the transaction fee revenue from users moving bitcoin sou-chèn.
Kòm Satoshi te di nan Seksyon 6 (Ankourajman) nan liv blanch la:
"Ankourajman an ka finanse tou ak frè tranzaksyon yo. Si valè pwodiksyon yon tranzaksyon an mwens pase valè opinyon li, diferans lan se yon frè tranzaksyon ki ajoute nan valè ankourajman blòk ki gen tranzaksyon an. Yon fwa ke yon kantite pyès monnen predetèmine antre nan sikilasyon, ankourajman an ka tranzisyon nèt nan frè tranzaksyon yo epi yo ka konplètman san enflasyon.”
Historically the halving has correlated with a massive appreciation in the price of bitcoin, offsetting the impact of the miners’ subsidy being cut in half. Miners’ bills are paid in fiat, meaning that if the price of bitcoin appreciates, resulting in a larger income in dollar terms for the lower amount of bitcoin earned per block, the negative impact on mining operation is cushioned.
In light of the last market cycle, with not even a 4x appreciation from the prior all time high, the degree to which price appreciation will cushion miners from the effects of the halving is an assumption that might not consistently hold true. This coming halving, the inflation rate of bitcoin will drop for the first time below 1%. If the next market cycle plays out similarly to the previous one, with much lower upwards movement than seen historically, this halving could have a materially negative impact on existing miners.
This makes the fee revenue miners can collect from transactions more important than ever, and it will continue to become more central to their sustainability from a business perspective as block height increases and successive halvings occur. Either fee revenue has to increase, or the price needs to appreciate at a minimum by 2x each halving in order to make up for the decrease in subsidy revenue. As bullish as most Bitcoiners can be, the notion that a doubling in price is guaranteed to happen every four years, in perpetuity, is a dubious assumption at best.
Renmen yo oswa rayi yo, BRC-20 tokens ak Enskripsyon yo te deplase tout dinamik mempool la, pouse frè soti nan yon kote nan ballpark la nan 0.1-0.2 BTC pou chak blòk anvan egzistans yo, nan mwayèn nan yon ti jan temèt nan 1-2 BTC. kòm nan an reta - regilyèman spiking byen lwen nan excès de sa.
Nouvo Faktè Fwa sa a
Ordinals present a very new incentive dynamic to the halving this go around that was not present at any prior halving in Bitcoin’s history. Rare sats. At the heart of Ordinals Theory is that satoshis from specific blocks can be tracked and “owned” based on its arbitrary interpretation of the transaction history of the blockchain, based on assuming specific amounts sent to specific outputs “send that sat” there. The other aspect of the theory is assigning rarity values to specific sats. Each block has a coinbase, thus producing an ordinal. But each block is different in importance to the scheme. Each normal block produces an “uncommon” sat, the first block of each difficulty adjustment produces a “rare” sat, and the first block of each halving cycle produces an “epic” sat.
This halving will be the first one since the widespread adoption of Ordinal Theory by a subset of Bitcoin users. There has never been the production of an “epic” sat while there was material market demand for it from a large and developed ecosystem. The market demand for that specific sat could wind up being valued at absurd multiples of what the coinbase reward itself is valued at in terms of just fungible satoshis.
The fact that a large market segment in the Bitcoin space would value that single coinbase drastically higher than any other creates an incentive for miners to fight over it by reorganizing the blockchain immediately after the halving. The only time such a thing has happened in history was during the very first halving, when the block reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Some miners continued trying to mine blocks rewarding 50 BTC in the coinbase after the supply cut, and gave up shortly after when the rest of the network ignored their efforts. This time around, the incentive to reorg isn’t based around ignoring the consensus rules and hoping people come along to your side, it's fighting over who is allowed to mine a completely valid block because of the value collectors will ascribe to that single coinbase.
Pa gen okenn garanti ke yon reorg konsa pral aktyèlman rive, men gen yon gwo anpil ankourajman finansye pou minè yo fè sa. Si li rive, longè li pral ale nan finalman depann de konbyen "epik" chita ta ka vo sou mache a pou peye pou revni pèdi nan batay sou yon sèl blòk olye ke pwogrese chèn lan.
Each halving in Bitcoin’s history has been a pivotal event people watch, but this go around it has the potential to be much more interesting than past halvings.
Ki jan yon batay sezon sezon te kapab jwe
Gen kèk fason sa a ta ka jwe nan opinyon mwen. Premye ak fason ki pi evidan se ke pa gen anyen k ap pase. Pou kèlkeswa rezon, minè yo pa jije ke valè potansyèl sou mache a nan premye "epik la" te chita depi lè adopsyon Ordinals te dekole se yon valè de pri opòtinite pou gaspiye enèji reorging blockchain la ak abandone lajan yo te kapab fè lè yo tou senpleman min blòk kap vini an. . Si minè yo pa panse prim siplemantè ordinal la ka jwenn vo pri pou yo abandone ale nan pwochen blòk la, yo tou senpleman pa pral fè li.
Pwochen posibilite a se yon rezilta nan echèl nuans nan ekonomi. Imajine yon operasyon min pi gwo echèl kapab gen mwayen pou riske plis "blòk pèdi" angaje nan yon batay reorg sou "epik" chita la. Sa pi gwo minè ak plis kapital pou mete sou tab la kapab gen mwayen pou pran yon pi gwo risk. Nan senaryo sa a, nou ta ka wè kèk tantativ reorg enpè pa pi gwo minè ak pi piti operasyon ki pa menm eseye, ak esansyèlman dezòd minim. Sa a ta jwe si minè yo panse gen kèk prim yo ka jwenn pou ordinal la, men se pa yon prim masiv vo dezòd grav nan rezo a.
Dènye senaryo a ta dwe si yon mache devlope òf pou "epik la" chita devan yo nan tan, ak minè yo ka gen yon foto klè ke ordinal la se valè twouve pi wo a valè sou mache a nan fonjib la chita tèt li. Nan ka sa a, minè yo ka goumen sou blòk sa a pou yon peryòd tan pwolonje. Lojik ki dèyè pa reorging blockchain la se ke w ap pèdi lajan, ou pa sèlman abandone rekonpans jis min pwochen blòk la, men w ap kontinye tou fè depans pou kouri operasyon min ou yo. Nan yon sitiyasyon kote mache a ap siyal piblikman ki kantite "epik" chita la vo, minè yo gen yon lide trè klè sou konbyen tan yo ka abandone deplase sou pwochen blòk la epi yo toujou van moute ak yon pwofi nèt lè yo atenn pòs-halving la. coinbase rekonpans ak ordinal la. Nan senaryo sa a rezo a te kapab wè dezòd sibstansyèl jiskaske minè yo kòmanse apwoche pwen nan engager yon pèt garanti menm si yo fè siksè fini min blòk sa a san yo pa ròge li.
Kèlkeswa fason bagay yo aktyèlman jwe, sa a pral yon faktè pou konsidere chak mwatye ale pi devan sof si demann lan ak mache pou ordinals mouri.
Sous orijinal: Bitcoin Magazine