By Bitcoin.com - 1 ane de sa - Tan pou lekti: 5 minit
Vitalik Buterin denonse modèl pri Stock-a-Flow Plan B la, li di ke modèl ka 'danjere'
For a few years now, the pseudonymous creator of the popular stock-to-flow (S2F) bitcoin price model, Plan B, has become a very well known bitcoin influencer gathering 1.8 million Twitter followers. However, after the S2F price model didn’t come to fruition and dropped well below the price targets in 2022, Plan B and his price model have been criticized a great deal. On Tuesday, Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin denounced the S2F price model and said “financial models that give people a false sense of certainty” can be “harmful,” and they deserve to be mocked.
Stock-a-Flow Plan B la Bitcoin Price Model Is Not as Popular as It Once Was
A few specific price models have been mocked this week as people have noticed that bitcoin’s price has not followed the "Rainbow" endikatè pri ak Plan B a pi popilè modèl pri stock-a-flow. Kreyatè psedonim modèl S2F la te atire atansyon kominote kript la ane de sa sou 22 mas 2019, lè li te pibliye yon editoryal called “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity.” When things got bullish in late 2020 and into 2021, Plan B’s statements and price model were revered and at times, the analyst’s predictions were on point.
Nan mwa janvye 2021, bitcoinse (b) Valè USD te sanble swiv modèl S2F la ak nan moman Plan B la te di: "bitcoin stock-to-flow model [is] on track… like clockwork.” Toward the end of June 2021, Plan B gave an aktyalizasyon on his “worst case scenario for 2021.” The analyst said: “Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crack down. There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K.”
Prediksyon difisil, sitou tan kap vini an. EMH menm di predi ke mache finansye yo enposib. Pou moun ki toujou enterese nan modèl, isit la yo se 5 b modèl evalyasyon:
- Tan (regresyon boutèy demi lit, lakansyèl) ak S2F twò wo
– UTXO/TX twò ba
- Difikilte / Mining_cost kounye a pi bon pic.twitter.com/9FYCbWmbp7
- PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) Jen 21, 2022
Apre li te pibliye prediksyon "pi move ka senaryo" li yo, Out, Septanm ak Oktòb sanble te rive nan objektif Plan B te prevwa a. Sepandan, pandan y ap b te frape yon maksimòm tout tan nan $ 69K pou chak inite sou Novanm 10, li pa t 'fè li tou pre seri a $ 98K ak Desanm pa te menm fèmen. Vit devan nan fen premye trimès 2022 la ak bpri a kontinye glise pi ba, e kounye a, pri ki mennen kriptografik la konpare ak tablo S2F la se byen lwen rada a. Plan B ak modèl pri li yo te kritike nan tan lontan an ak pa byen li te ye BTC defansè. Pou egzanp, mèt kay la nan Upstream Data, Steve Barbour, yon fwa tweeted:
The S2F model is the used car salesman approach to memeing bitcoin nan lalin lan.
Buterin di 'Stock-to-Flow se reyèlman pa gade bon kounye a'
Nan tan ki pi resan yo, modèl Plan B la te pase nan betiz ak ridikil plis feròs. Defansè Ethereum Anthony Sassano tweeted sou modèl S2F ak prediksyon Plan B la. Sassano te di: "Modèl 'Stock to flow' la se yon echèk sezon konsa ke Plan B ta dwe jis efase kont li. "Li pa pral men paske li Malerezman toujou gen 1.8 milyon disip ki manje tout fatra hopium li sou yon baz chak jou." Apre sa, tweet la te resevwa atansyon ko-fondatè Ethereum Vitalik Buterin ki te fè kòmantè sou sijè a tou.
"Stock-a-flow se reyèlman pa gade bon kounye a," Buterin te di retweeting deklarasyon Sassano a. “Mwen konnen li se malpolite pou rejwi ak tout bagay sa yo, men mwen panse ke modèl finansye ki bay moun yon fo sans de sètitid ak predestinasyon ke nimewo-ap-ale-up danjere e yo merite tout betiz yo jwenn. Sonje ki moun ki sipòte S2F ak ki moun ki pase l nan betiz menm lè li te sanble ak presizyon dekri liy tandans lan, "ko-fondatè Ethereum. te ajoute.
Plan B reponn, fanatik analis yo di l 'kontinye afiche - mwen jwi pèspektiv ou pote a'
Plan B te reponn deklarasyon Buterin a lè li te retweet Tweet li nan Madi ak kèk kritik sou "pwojè ki echwe."
"Apre yon aksidan, gen kèk moun k ap chèche bouk pou pwojè echwe yo oswa move desizyon envestisman," Plan B. te di. “Se pa sèlman newbies men [tou] 'lidè' yo tonbe viktim blame lòt moun ak jwe viktim nan. Sonje moun ki blame lòt moun ak moun ki kanpe djanm apre yon aksidan.” Plan B tou retweeted yon moun ki te ekri ke "Tokenomics 'ultrason' Ethereum yo antyèman baze sou S2F." Plan B tou eksplike pita nan jounen an ke li pataje analiz li yo ak tablo yo gratis.
"Se konsa, mwen pataje analiz mwen ak tablo yo GRATIS," Plan B te ekri on Tuesday. “Never told anybody to buy or what/when/how/howmuch to buy. Now covid, China ban, Russia war and inflation tank all assets including bitcoin… and somehow some weeners blame their investment decisions on me? Lame.”
She's a 10 but according to PlanB
— cryptograffiti (@cryptograffiti) Jen 21, 2022
Kòm mansyone pi wo a, S2F te vize pou yo te mal, men endikatè pri "Rainbow" la tou te pase nan betiz pandan de semèn ki sot pase yo. Nan yon mòd menm jan an, tablo Rainbow la pa genyen bpri a men gen kèk moun ki te di ke yo ta ka ajoute kèk liy siplemantè koulè wouj violèt pou fè tablo a travay ankò. "Mwen te kreye yon modèl nouvo ak amelyore pou tablo lakansyèl la," kont Twitter @Levelsdennis. tweeted.
Meanwhile, a number of bitcoin sympathized with Plan B and told him to keep up his work. “Indeed. Keep posting pls – I enjoy the perspective you bring,” the popular Twitter account with 1 million followers and dubbed @BTC_archive told the pseudonymous analyst.
What do you think about the recent criticisms about Plan B’s stock-to-flow bitcoin price model? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.
Sous orijinal: Bitcoin. Avèk