Market Mayhem and Calling the Bitcoin Price Bottom

By Bitcoin Časopis - pred 1 rokom - Čas čítania: 5 minúty
Pondelok, 16. máj 2022 3:30

Market Mayhem and Calling the Bitcoin Price Bottom

A contrarian take on the current market structure suggesting that the bitcoin bottom is near and the Federal Reserve will reverse its hawkish course.

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In this episode of the “Fed Watch” podcast, Christian Keroles and I, along with the livestream crew, discuss macro developments relevant to bitcoin. Topics include the recent 50 bps rate hike from the Fed, a consumer price index (CPI) preview — the episode was recorded live on Tuesday, before the CPI data was released — and a discussion on why owners’ equivalent rent is often misunderstood. We wrap up with an epic discussion of the bitcoin cena.

This could be a pivotal episode in the history of “Fed Watch,” because I’m on the record saying that bitcoin is “in the neighborhood” of the bottom. This is in stark contrast to the mainstream uber-bearishness in the market right now. In this episode, I rely heavily on charts that didn’t always line up during the video. Those charts are provided below with a basic explanation. You can see the celý slide deck, ktorý som tu použil.

“Fed Watch” is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the traditional financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now.

Federálny rezervný systém a ekonomické čísla pre USA

Na tomto prvom grafe poukazujem na posledné dve zvýšenia sadzieb Fedu na grafe S&P 500. Napísal som v a blogový príspevok tento týždeň, “What I'm trying to show is that the rate hikes themselves are not the Federal Reserve’s primary tool. Talking about hiking rates is the primary tool, along with fostering the belief in the magic of the Fed.” Remove the arrows and try to guess where the announcements were.

To isté platí pre nasledujúci graf: zlato.

Lastly, for this section, we looked at the bitcoin chart with quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) plotted. As you can see, in the era with “No QE,” from 2015 to 2019, bitcoin experienced a 6,000% bull market. This is almost the exact opposite of what one would expect. To summarize this section, Fed policy has little to do with major swings in the market. Swings come from the unknowable complex ebbs and flows of the market. The Federal Reserve only tries to smooth the edges.

CPI Mayhem

Je ťažké napísať dobré zhrnutie tejto časti podcastu, pretože deň pred vypustením údajov sme boli naživo. V podcaste pokrývam CPI v eurozóne mierne stúpa, na 7.5 % v apríli medziročne (medziročne), pričom medzimesačná miera zmeny klesla z ohromujúcich 2.5 % v marci na 0.6 % v apríli. To je príbeh, ktorý väčšine ľudí v CPI chýba: medzimesačné zmeny sa v apríli rapídne spomalili. V podcaste som sa venoval aj prognózam CPI pre USA, ale teraz máme tvrdé dáta za apríl. Celkový CPI v USA klesol z 8.5 % v marci na 8.3 % v apríli. Medzimesačná zmena klesla z 1.2 % v marci na 0.3 % v apríli. Opäť veľký pokles miery rastu CPI. CPI môže byť veľmi mätúce pri pohľade na medziročné údaje.

Zdá sa, že inflácia v apríli bola nameraná na úrovni 8.3 %, pričom v skutočnosti bola nameraná iba na úrovni 0.3 %.

Next topic we cover in the podcast is rent. I very often hear misunderstandings of the CPI measure on shelter and specifically owners’ equivalent rent (OER). For starters, it’s very hard to measure the impact of increases to housing costs on consumers in general. Most people do not move very often. We have 15- or 30-year fixed-rate mortgages that are not affected at all by current home prices. Even rental leases are not renewed every month. Contracts typically last a year, sometimes more. Therefore, if a few people pay higher rents in a certain month, that does not affect the average person’s shelter expenses or the average landlord’s revenue.

Taking current market prices for rentals or homes is a dishonest way to estimate the average cost of housing, yet not doing so is the most often-quoted critique of the CPI. Caveat: I’m not saying CPI measures inflation (money printing); it measures an index of prices to maintain your standard of living. Of course, there are many layers of subjectivity in this statistic. OER more accurately estimates changes in housing costs for the average American, smooths out volatility and separates pure shelter costs from investment value.

Bitcoin Analýza cien

The rest of the episode is talking about the current bitcoin price action. I start my bullish rant by showing the hash rate chart and talking about why it is a lagging and confirming indicator. With the hash rate at all-time highs and consistently increasing, this suggests that bitcoin is fairly valued at its current level. 

V posledných rokoch boli zaznamenané kratšie, menšie nárasty a kratšie, menšie čerpania. Tento graf naznačuje, že novým normálom je 50 % čerpanie namiesto 85 %.

Now, we get into some technical analysis. I concentrate on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) because it is very basic and a fundamental building block of many other indicators. Monthly RSI is at levels that typically signal cycle bottoms. Currently, the monthly metric shows that bitcoin is more oversold than at the bottom of the corona crash in 2020. Weekly RSI is equally as oversold. It is as low as the bottom of the corona crash in 2020, and before that, the bottom of the bear market in 2018.

Index strachu a chamtivosti je tiež extrémne nízka. Toto opatrenie ukazuje „Extrémny strach“, ktorý sa zvyčajne registruje na relatívnych dnoch a na úrovni 10, čo je najnižšie hodnotenie od pádu COVID-19 v roku 2020.

Stručne povedané, môj protichodný (býčí) argument je:

To platí pre tento týždeň. Ďakujeme čitateľom a poslucháčom. Ak sa vám tento obsah páči, prihláste sa na odber, recenzujte a zdieľajte!

Toto je príspevok hosťa od Ansela Lindnera. Vyjadrené názory sú úplne ich vlastné a nemusia nevyhnutne odrážať názory BTC Inc. alebo Bitcoin časopis.

Originálny zdroj: Bitcoin časopis