By Bitcoin Mekasini - 3 masina talu ai - Taimi Faitau: 6 minute
le Bitcoin Halving: Aisea e mafai ai ona ese le Taimi Lenei
Le fa Bitcoin halving is almost upon us, and this one has the potential for some very interesting surprises. This halving marks the reduction of the Bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 BTC every block to 3.125 BTC per block. These supply reductions occur every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, as part of Bitcoin’s gradual, disinflationary approach to its final capped supply in circulation.
O le fa'ai'uga o le sapalai o le 21 miliona tupe o se, pe a leai le, foundational characteristic of Bitcoin. This predictability of supply and inflation rate has been at the heart of what has driven demand and belief in bitcoin as a superior form of money. The regular supply halving is the mechanism by which that finite supply is ultimately enacted.
The halvings over time are the driver behind one of the most fundamental shifts of Bitcoin incentives in the long term: the move from miners being funded by newly issued coins from the coinbase subsidy — the block reward — to being funded dominantly by the transaction fee revenue from users moving bitcoin i luga o filifili.
E pei ona fai mai Satoshi i le Vaega 6 (Faʻamalosi) o le pepa paʻepaʻe:
“E mafai fo’i ona fa’atupe le fa’aosofiaga i pili tau fefa’ataua’iga. Afai o le tau o le gaosiga o se fefaʻatauaiga e itiiti ifo nai lo lona tau faʻaoga, o le eseesega o se totogifuapauina o fefaʻatauaiga lea e faʻaopoopo i le tau faʻaosofia o le poloka o loʻo i ai le fefaʻatauaiga. A mae'a ona fa'asalalau le numera o tupe siliva, o le fa'aosofiaga e mafai ona suia atoa i totogifuapauina o fefa'ataua'iga ma fa'ato'a leai se tau o le tau.
Historically the halving has correlated with a massive appreciation in the price of bitcoin, offsetting the impact of the miners’ subsidy being cut in half. Miners’ bills are paid in fiat, meaning that if the price of bitcoin appreciates, resulting in a larger income in dollar terms for the lower amount of bitcoin earned per block, the negative impact on mining operation is cushioned.
In light of the last market cycle, with not even a 4x appreciation from the prior all time high, the degree to which price appreciation will cushion miners from the effects of the halving is an assumption that might not consistently hold true. This coming halving, the inflation rate of bitcoin will drop for the first time below 1%. If the next market cycle plays out similarly to the previous one, with much lower upwards movement than seen historically, this halving could have a materially negative impact on existing miners.
This makes the fee revenue miners can collect from transactions more important than ever, and it will continue to become more central to their sustainability from a business perspective as block height increases and successive halvings occur. Either fee revenue has to increase, or the price needs to appreciate at a minimum by 2x each halving in order to make up for the decrease in subsidy revenue. As bullish as most Bitcoiners can be, the notion that a doubling in price is guaranteed to happen every four years, in perpetuity, is a dubious assumption at best.
Alofa ia i latou pe inoino ia i latou, BRC-20 faailoga ma Inscriptions ua suia le malosi atoa o le mempool, tuleia totogifuapauina mai se mea i le ballpark o le 0.1-0.2 BTC i le poloka ao lei oo i latou, i le averesi fai si volatile o 1-2 BTC talu ai nei - o lo'o fa'atupu soo i luga atu o lena.
Le Fa'ailoga Fou Le Taimi Lenei
Ordinals present a very new incentive dynamic to the halving this go around that was not present at any prior halving in Bitcoin’s history. Rare sats. At the heart of Ordinals Theory is that satoshis from specific blocks can be tracked and “owned” based on its arbitrary interpretation of the transaction history of the blockchain, based on assuming specific amounts sent to specific outputs “send that sat” there. The other aspect of the theory is assigning rarity values to specific sats. Each block has a coinbase, thus producing an ordinal. But each block is different in importance to the scheme. Each normal block produces an “uncommon” sat, the first block of each difficulty adjustment produces a “rare” sat, and the first block of each halving cycle produces an “epic” sat.
This halving will be the first one since the widespread adoption of Ordinal Theory by a subset of Bitcoin users. There has never been the production of an “epic” sat while there was material market demand for it from a large and developed ecosystem. The market demand for that specific sat could wind up being valued at absurd multiples of what the coinbase reward itself is valued at in terms of just fungible satoshis.
The fact that a large market segment in the Bitcoin space would value that single coinbase drastically higher than any other creates an incentive for miners to fight over it by reorganizing the blockchain immediately after the halving. The only time such a thing has happened in history was during the very first halving, when the block reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Some miners continued trying to mine blocks rewarding 50 BTC in the coinbase after the supply cut, and gave up shortly after when the rest of the network ignored their efforts. This time around, the incentive to reorg isn’t based around ignoring the consensus rules and hoping people come along to your side, it's fighting over who is allowed to mine a completely valid block because of the value collectors will ascribe to that single coinbase.
E leai ni fa'amautinoaga o le a tupu moni lava se fa'alavelave fa'apea, ae o lo'o i ai se fa'aosofiaga tau tupe tele mo le au maina e faia. Afai e tupu, o le umi e alu ai e faalagolago i le tele o lena "epic" sat e mafai ona aoga i luga o le maketi e totogi ai tupe maua leiloa mai le taua i luga o se poloka e tasi nai lo le alualu i luma o le filifili.
Each halving in Bitcoin’s history has been a pivotal event people watch, but this go around it has the potential to be much more interesting than past halvings.
E Fa'afefea ona Ta'alo se Taua Tele Sat
E i ai nai auala e mafai ai ona faʻaalia i loʻu manatu. O le auala muamua ma sili ona manino e leai se mea e tupu. Po o le a lava le mafuaʻaga, e le faʻamasinoina e le au miners o le tau o maketi o le "epic" muamua na nofo mai talu mai le vaetamaina o Ordinals e aoga le tau avanoa o le faʻaumatiaina o le malosi e toe faʻaleleia ai le poloka poloka ma faʻamalo le tupe e mafai ona latou faia e ala i le na o le faʻaogaina o le isi poloka. . Afai e le manatu le au miners o le tau faaopoopo e mafai e le ordinal ona maua e aoga le tau o le fiu e agai i le isi poloka, latou te le faia lava.
O le isi avanoa o se taunuuga o fua nuanced o le tamaoaiga. Va'ai faalemafaufau i le tele o galuega eli e mafai ona lamatia ai le tele o "poloka leiloa" o loʻo auai i se fusuaga faʻafouina i luga o le "epic" sat. O lena miner lapopoa ma le tele o tupe faavae e tuu i luga o le laulau e mafai ona gafatia e ave se tulaga lamatia tele. I lenei fa'ata'ita'iga, atonu tatou te va'ai i ni nai taumafaiga fa'a-reorgiga a le au faili tetele ma ni gaioiga laiti e le o taumafai, ma e matua'i fa'alavelave. O le a faia lenei mea pe afai e manatu le au miners o loʻo i ai se tupe faʻaalu e mafai ona latou mauaina mo le faʻatonu, ae le o se tupe faʻaalu tele e faʻalavelaveina ai le fesoʻotaʻiga.
O le fa'ata'ita'iga mulimuli o le a fai pe a fa'atupuina e se maketi le tauofoga mo le "epic" sa nofo i luma atu o le taimi, ma e mafai e le au miners ona maua se ata manino o le fa'atonuga e sili atu le tau i luga atu o le tau maketi o le fungible sat lava ia. I lenei tulaga, e mafai e tagata maina ona tau i luga o lena poloka mo se taimi umi. O le manatu i tua o le le toe faʻatulagaina o le poloka poloka o loʻo e leiloa tupe, e le gata ua e lafoaʻia le taui o le naʻo le eliina o le isi poloka, ae o loʻo e faʻaauau pea ona faʻaalu le tau o le faʻagaioia o au galuega eli. I se tulaga o loʻo faʻaalia ai e le maketi le tele o le "epic" sat e taua, o loʻo i ai i le au miners se manatu manino pe o le a le umi e mafai ai ona latou faʻamalo le agai i luga o le isi poloka ae faʻaumatia pea i se tupe mama e ala i le mauaina o le post-halving. coinbase taui ma le ordinal. I lenei fa'aaliga e mafai ona va'aia e le feso'ota'iga le tele o fa'alavelave se'ia o'o ina fa'alatalata atu le au maina i le tulaga o le fa'atupuina o se gau mautinoa e tusa lava pe latou te fa'amae'aina le la'uina o lenei poloka e aunoa ma le toe fa'atulagaina.
E tusa lava po o le a le auala e faʻataunuʻu ai mea, o le a avea ma mea taua e mafaufau i le afa o le agai i luma seʻi vagana ua pe le manaʻoga ma maketi mo sauniga.
Punavai autu: Bitcoin tusiata