GBTC 流出：預測總計 Bitcoin 銷售壓力和市場影響

By Bitcoin 雜誌 - 3 個月前 - 閱讀時間：9 分鐘
26 年 2024 月 4 日星期五下午 36:XNUMX

GBTC 流出：預測總計 Bitcoin 銷售壓力和市場影響

以下是對 GBTC 流出量的啟發式分析，並非嚴格意義上的數學，而是作為一個工具，幫助人們從高位了解當前 GBTC 的拋售狀況，並預估未來可能出現的流出規模。發生。

數字下降

January 25, 2024 – Since Wall Street came to Bitcoin 在的主持下 現貨ETF approval, the market has been met with relentless selling from the largest pool of bitcoin in the world: the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) which held more than 630,000 bitcoin at its peak. After conversion from a closed-end fund to a Spot ETF, GBTC’s treasury (3% of all 21 million bitcoin) has bled more than $4 billion during the first 9 days of ETF trading, while other ETF participants have seen inflows of approximately $5.2 billion over that same period. The result – $824 million in net inflows – is somewhat surprising given the sharply negative price action since the SEC lent its stamp of approval.

In trying to forecast the near-term price impact of Spot Bitcoin 交易所買賣基金, we must first understand for 多久 和 什麼程度 GBTC 資金外流將持續。以下回顧了 GBTC 流出的原因、賣家是誰、他們的相對庫存估計以及我們預計流出需要多長時間。最終，這些預期的資金流出儘管規模無疑很大，但卻極度違反直覺。 看漲 對於 bitcoin in the medium-term despite the downside volatility that we have all experienced (and perhaps most did not expect) post ETF-approval.

GBTC 的宿醉：為此付出代價

First, some housekeeping on GBTC. It is now plainly clear just how important of a catalyst the GBTC arbitrage trade was in fomenting the 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull run. The GBTC premium was the rocket fuel driving the market higher, allowing market participants (3AC, Babel, Celsius, Blockfi, Voyager etc.) to acquire shares at net asset value, all the while marking their book value up to include the premium. Essentially, the premium drove demand for creation of GBTC shares, which in turn drove bidding for spot bitcoin. It was basically risk free…

儘管溢價在 2020 年以上的牛市期間推高了市場，並且有數十億美元湧入以獲取 GBTC 溢價，但故事很快就變質了。隨著 GBTC 金鵝的資金枯竭，該信託基金於 2021 年 XNUMX 月開始以低於資產淨值的價格進行交易，隨之而來的是一連串的清算。 GBTC 的折扣基本上使整個行業的資產負債表也隨之下降。

Sparked by the implosion of Terra Luna in May 2022, cascading liquidations of GBTC shares by parties like 3AC and Babel (the so-called “crypto contagion”) ensued, pushing the GBTC discount down even further. Since then, GBTC has been an albatross around the neck of bitcoin, and continues to be, as the bankruptcy estates of those hung out to dry on the GBTC “risk free” trade are still liquidating their GBTC shares to this day. Of the aforementioned victims of the “risk free” trade and its collateral damage, the FTX estate (the largest of those parties) 最後 liquidated 20,000 BTC across the first 8 days of Spot Bitcoin ETF trading in order to pay back its creditors.

It is also important to note the role of the steep GBTC discount relative to NAV and its impact on spot bitcoin demand. The discount incentivized investors to go long GBTC and short BTC, collecting a BTC-denominated return as GBTC crept back up toward NAV. This dynamic further siphoned spot bitcoin demand away – a toxic combination that has further plagued the market until the GBTC discount recently returned to near-neutral post ETF approval.

儘管如此，仍有相當多的破產財產仍然持有 GBTC，並將繼續從 Grayscale 擁有的 600,000 BTC 庫存中清算（截至 512,000 年 26 月 2024 日為 XNUMX BTC）。以下試圖重點介紹 GBTC 股東的不同細分市場，然後根據每個細分市場的財務策略來解釋我們可能會看到哪些額外資金流出。

不同群體GBTC持有者的最優策略

Simply put, the question is: of the ~600,000 Bitcoin that were in the trust, how many of them are likely to exit GBTC in total? Subsequently, of those outflows, how many are going to rotate back into a Bitcoin product, or Bitcoin itself, thus largely negating the selling pressure? This is where it gets tricky, and knowing who owns GBTC shares, and what their incentives are, is important.

The two key aspects driving GBTC outflows are as follows: fee structure (1.5% annual fee) and idiosyncratic selling depending on each shareholder's unique financial circumstance (cost basis, tax incentives, bankruptcy etc.).

破產財產

預計所有權：15%（89.5 萬股 | 77,000 BTC）

截至 22 年 2024 月 22 日，FTX 機構已清算其持有的全部 GBTC 20,000 萬股（約 36 BTC）。其他破產方，包括 GBTC 姊妹公司 Genesis Global（32,000 萬股/約 31 BTC）和另一個（未公開身分）實體持有約 28,000 萬股（約 XNUMX BTC）。

重申一下：破產財產持有約 15.5% 的 GBTC 股份（90 萬股/約 80,000 BTC），並且很可能大部分或全部這些股份將盡快合法出售，以償還這些財產的債權人。 FTX 財產已出售 22 萬股（約 20,000 BTC），但尚不清楚 Genesis 和另一方是否已出售其股份。綜上所述，破產銷售的很大一部分很可能已經被市場消化，這在很大程度上得益於 FTX 在 22 年 2024 月 XNUMX 日撕掉創可貼。

破產銷售的一個難題是：這些銷售可能不會順利或漫長，而是像 FTX 那樣一次性付清。相反，其他類型的股東可能會以更持久的方式退出其持倉，而不是一舉清算其持股。一旦解決了法律難題，很有可能100%的破產財產股份將被出售。

零售經紀和退休帳戶

預計所有權：50%（286.5 萬股 | 255,000 BTC）

Next up, retail brokerage account shareholders. GBTC, as one of the first passive products available for retail investors when it launched in 2013, has a massive retail contingency. In my estimation, retail investors hold approximately 50% of GBTC shares (286m shares / ~255,000 bitcoin). This is the trickiest tranche of shares to project in terms of their optimal path forward because their decision to sell or not will depend upon the price of bitcoin, which then dictates the tax status for each share purchase.

例如，如果價格為 bitcoin rises, a greater proportion of retail shares will be in-profit, meaning if they rotate out of GBTC, they will incur a taxable event in the form of capital gains, thus they will likely stay put. However, the inverse is true as well. If the price of bitcoin continues to fall, more GBTC investors will not incur a taxable event, and thus will be incentivized to exit. This potential feedback loop marginally increases the pool of sellers that can exit without a tax penalty. Given GBTC’s unique availability to those early to bitcoin (therefore likely in profit), it is likely that most retail investors will stay put. To put a number on it, it is feasible that 25% retail brokerage accounts will sell, but this is subject to change depending upon bitcoin price action (as noted above).

接下來，我們有透過 IRA（退休帳戶）進行分配的具有免稅資格的散戶投資者。這些股東對費用結構極為敏感，並且考慮到他們的 IRA 身份，可以在不發生應稅事件的情況下出售。由於 GBTC 的年費高達 1.5%（是 GBTC 競爭對手的六倍），幾乎可以肯定，該細分市場的很大一部分將退出 GBTC，轉而選擇其他現貨 ETF。這些股東中的 75% 可能會退出，而許多股東會因為對 GBTC 相對於其他產品的費用結構的冷漠或誤解而留下來（或者他們只是看重 GBTC 相對於其他 ETF 產品提供的流動性）。

On the bright side for spot bitcoin demand from retirement accounts, these GBTC outflows will likely be met with inflows into other Spot ETF products, as they will likely just rotate rather than exiting bitcoin into cash.

機構股東

預計所有權：35%（200,000,000 股 | 180,000 BTC）

And finally, we have the institutions, which account for approximately 180,000 bitcoin. These players include FirTree and Saba Capital, as well as hedge funds that wanted to arbitrage the GBTC discount and spot bitcoin price discrepancy. This was done by going long GBTC and short bitcoin in order to have net neutral bitcoin positioning and capture GBTC’s return to NAV.

需要注意的是，這部分股東是不透明且難以預測的，而且 還 acts as a bellwether for bitcoin demand from TradFi. For those with GBTC exposure purely for the aforementioned arbitrage trade, we can assume they will not return to purchase bitcoin through any other mechanism. We estimate investors of this type to make up 25% of all GBTC shares (143m shares / ~130,000 BTC). This is by no means certain, but it would reason that greater than 50% of TradFi will exit to cash without returning to a bitcoin product or physical bitcoin.

為 Bitcoin-native funds and Bitcoin whales (~5% of total shares), it is likely that their sold GBTC shares will be recycled into bitcoin, resulting in a net-flat impact on bitcoin price. For crypto-native investors (~5% of total shares), they will likely exit GBTC into cash and other crypto assets (not bitcoin). Combined, these two cohorts (57m shares / ~50,000 BTC) will have a net neutral to slightly negative impact on bitcoin price given their relative rotations to cash and bitcoin.

Total GBTC Outflows & Net Bitcoin 影響力

需要明確的是，這些預測存在很大的不確定性，但考慮到破產財產、零售經紀帳戶、退休帳戶和機構投資者之間提到的動態，以下是對整體贖回情況的粗略估計。

預計流出細目：

預計導致 BTC 淨拋售壓力的 GBTC 相關資金流出總額：100,000 至 150,000 BTC

截至 26 年 2024 月 XNUMX 日 約為115,000 bitcoin have left GBTC. Given Alameda’s recorded sale (20,000 bitcoin), we estimate that of the other ~95,000 bitcoin, half have rotated into cash, and half have rotated into bitcoin 或其他 bitcoin products. This implies net-neutral market impact from GBTC outflows.

預計資金流出尚未發生：

TOTAL Estimated Outflows To Come: ~135,000 - 230,000 BTC

註：如前所述，這些估計是啟發式分析的結果，不應被解釋為財務建議，而只是旨在讓讀者了解總體流出情況 五月 看起來像。此外，這些估計是根據市場情況而定的。

逐漸地，然後突然地：告別熊

In summary, we estimate that the market has already stomached approximately 30-45% of all projected GBTC outflows (115,000 BTC of 250,000-300,000 BTC projected total outflows) and that the remaining 55-70% of expected outflows will follow in short order over the next 20-30 trading days. All in, 150,000 - 200,000 BTC in net selling pressure may result from GBTC sales given that the significant proportion of GBTC outflows will either rotate into other Spot ETF products, or into cold storage bitcoin.

We are through the brunt of the pain from 巴里西爾伯特’s GBTC gauntlet and that is reason to celebrate. The market will be much better off on the other side: GBTC will have finally relinquished its stranglehold over bitcoin markets, and without the specter of the discount or future firesales hanging over the market, bitcoin will be much less encumbered when it does arise. While it will take time to digest the rest of the GBTC outflows, and there will likely be a long tail of people exiting their position (mentioned previously), bitcoin will have plenty of room to run when the Spot ETFs settle into a groove.

哦，我有沒有提到減半即將到來？但這是另一個故事了。 

Bitcoin Magazine is wholly owned by BTC Inc., which operates UTXO管理, a regulated capital allocator focused on the digital assets industry. UTXO invests in a variety of Bitcoin businesses, and maintains significant holdings in digital assets. 

原始來源： Bitcoin 雜誌