通過 NewsBTC - 3 個月前 - 閱讀時間：3 分鐘
Bitcoin 在新的銀行危機中準備週末集會：阿瑟海耶斯
Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has offered an in-depth analysis of the current financial landscape and its potential impact on Bitcoin, especially in light of the recent challenges faced by New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) and the broader banking sector.
Hayes’s analysis draws on the complex interplay between macroeconomic policies, banking sector health, and the cryptocurrency market. His comments are particularly insightful given the recent developments with NYCB. The bank’s stock plummeted by 46% due to an unexpected loss and a substantial dividend cut, which was primarily attributed to a tenfold increase in loan loss reserves, far exceeding estimates.
這一事件對美國地區銀行的穩定性和風險敞口提出了危險信號，特別是在房地產行業，眾所周知，該行業對週期性敏感且容易受到經濟衰退的影響。股市對這些事態發展做出了負面反應，美國地區銀行股也因 NYCB 的表現而下跌。
Weekend Rally Ahead For Bitcoin?
海耶斯明確表示 說”，“Jaypow [傑羅姆·鮑威爾] 和 Bad Burl Yellen [珍妮特·耶倫] 很快就會印鈔票。 NYCB 宣佈「意外」損失，因為貸款損失準備金比預期增加了 10 倍。我猜銀行還沒修好。”這項評論凸顯了銀行業持續脆弱，仍受到 2023 年銀行危機衝擊的影響。他補充道，“10年期和2年期國債收益率暴跌，表明市場預計銀行家將採取某種新的救助措施來解決問題。”
此外，海耶斯還強調了聯準會定期融資計畫 (BTFP) 即將結束，該計畫是為應對 2023 年銀行業危機而推出的。 BTFP 是向銀行提供流動性的重要工具，使銀行能夠使用更廣泛的抵押品進行借貸。
Hayes anticipates market turbulence leading to the Fed possibly reinstating the BTFP or introducing similar measures. In a recent statement, he 注意, “If my forecast is correct, the market will bankrupt a few banks within that period, forcing the Fed into cutting rates and announcing the resumption of the BTFP.” This scenario, he argues, would create a liquidity injection that could buoy cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin。
Hayes 在 X 上的最新貼文中將加密貨幣在 2023 年 XNUMX 月銀行危機期間的表現進行了類比。他 預測 類似的軌跡，顯示短暫下跌後出現大幅上漲：
預計比特幣會稍微下跌，但如果 NYCB 和其他一些機構在周末拋售，預計很快就會有新的紓困。然後 BTC 就開始了競爭，就像 23 月 XNUMX 日的價格走勢一樣。 [……]我想也許是時候回到火車家庭了。也許是在本週末幾家美國銀行破產之後。
在 March crisis, Bitcoin’s value jumped over 40%, a reaction attributed to its perceived role as a digital gold or a safe-haven asset amid financial instability. On a longer time horizon and with the Great Financial Crisis from 2008 in mind, he further argued, “What did the Fed and Treasury do last time US property prices plunged and bankrupted banks globally? Money Printer Go Brrrr. BTC = $1 million. Yachtzee.”
截至發稿時，BTC 的交易價格為 42,232 美元。
原始來源： NewsBTC